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2025年8月初甘肃极端降水事件的形成机理与水汽特征

Formation Mechanisms and Moisture Characteristics of the Extreme Rainfall Event in Gansu during Early August 2025

  • 摘要: 基于ECMWF提供的0.25o(纬度)×0.25o(经度)、逐小时分辨率ERA5再分析资料与地面站点小时降水观测数据,综合运用天气学诊断、动能与涡度收支分析以及拉格朗日水汽追踪方法,研究了2025年8月3日甘肃省一次极端降水事件(最大小时雨强达85.7 mm)的形成机理与水汽特征。研究发现,此次极端降水事件发生在稳定的环流背景下,主要分为两个阶段:阶段I的强降水主要由对流层低层鞍型场西南侧的低压倒槽所引发;由鞍型场高压指向低压倒槽的强气压梯度力做功维持了该区域较强的偏东风,偏东风遇到青藏高原东北部高大地形产生辐合是此阶段降水主要的动力抬升机制。阶段II的降水则与一个准静止的中尺度涡旋相关,该涡旋生成和维持主要由低层辐合相关的垂直伸展项主导,向上的气旋式涡度输送也是其维持的有利因子。拉格朗日水汽收支表明,本次极端降水事件的水汽供应以本地蒸发和陆地再循环过程为主(贡献约为40.4%),中国西部—中亚与中国东部为次要贡献源区,而远程海洋水汽的直接贡献微乎其微。这一定量结果表明西北内陆极端降水独特的、以陆地水汽为主导的水汽输送特征,相关结论可为提高西北地区极端降水的机理理解与预报预警能力提供科学参考。

     

    Abstract: Formation mechanism and moisture characteristics of an extreme precipitation event (maximum hourly rainfall intensity of 85.7 mm) in Gansu Province on 3 August 2025, were investigated using 0.25°(latitude)×0.25°(longitude) hourly resolution ERA5 reanalysis data from ECMWF and surface station hourly precipitation observations. Methods such as synoptic diagnosis, kinetic energy and vorticity budget analyses, and Lagrangian moisture tracking were employed. Results indicate that the extreme precipitation event occurred in two stages under a stable circulation background. In Stage I, precipitation was primarily triggered by a low-pressure trough located on the southwestern flank of a saddle-shaped flow pattern in the lower troposphere. A strong pressure gradient force from the high-pressure area to the low-pressure trough maintained a persistent easterly wind, whose convergence against the high topography of the northeastern Tibetan Plateau was the main dynamic lifting mechanism during this stage. In Stage II, precipitation was associated with a quasi-stationary mesoscale vortex. The generation and maintenance of this vortex were predominantly governed by the stretching term associated with low-level convergence. Moreover, upward cyclonic vorticity advection contributed to its persistence. Lagrangian moisture budget analysis revealed that the moisture supply for this extreme precipitation event was dominated by local evaporation and terrestrial moisture recycling (contributing approximately 40.4%), with secondary contributions from western China–Central Asia and eastern China. Conversely, direct contributions from remote oceanic moisture sources were negligible. These quantitative findings highlight the unique terrestrial-dominated moisture transport properties of extreme precipitation in inland northwestern China. The results provide scientific insights to improve understanding, forecasting, and early warning capabilities for such extreme precipitation events in the region.

     

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