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基于多个排放源清单模拟京津冀冬季和夏季典型月份的二次无机气溶胶

Simulation of Secondary Inorganic Aerosols for Typical Winter and Summer Months Using Multiple Emission Inventories over the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region

  • 摘要: 基于空气质量模型EPICC-Model,探讨不同排放清单对京津冀地区SNA组分模拟结果的冬夏季季节差异。选取2023年2月(冬季)和7月(夏季)为代表时段,采用六套排放清单(MEIC、ABaCAS、CAQIEI、EDGAR、HTAPv3、CEDS)开展模拟。结果表明,各清单模拟结果呈现一致的季节规律,冬季模拟的SNA总浓度比夏季高约55.5% - 65.6%,在冬季SNA中硝酸盐占主导,到夏季其占比下降,硫酸盐占比上升。从不同清单模拟的浓度差异来看,夏季模拟的硫酸盐、硝酸盐和铵盐的不确定性均高于冬季,其中硝酸盐的不确定性季节变化最大,夏季的变异系数(CV)比冬季高约67%。与地面观测对比,除EDGAR,自下而上的清单普遍低估冬季和夏季的硫酸盐和铵盐。夏季硝酸盐在所有自下而上清单中均被低估,在冬季除HTAPv3外,仍呈现低估。而自上而下的CAQIEI在冬夏季均能够较好再现SNA各组分浓度。这些结果揭示了基于不同清单的SNA模拟及其不确定性的差异,为理解和减小SNA模拟的不确定性提供了科学基础。

     

    Abstract: The air quality model EPICC-Model was adopted to investigate the seasonal differences in the simulation of SNA components under different emission inventories over the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. February (winter) and July 2023 (summer) were selected as representative periods, and simulations were conducted with six emission inventories (MEIC, ABaCAS, CAQIEI, EDGAR, HTAPv3, and CEDS). The results indicate that simulations based on all emission inventories exhibit a consistent seasonal pattern. The total SNA concentration in winter is approximately 55.5% - 65.6% higher than in summer. Nitrate dominates the SNA composition in winter, whereas its fraction decreases in summer while the fraction of sulfate increases. Based on the concentration differences simulated using different emission inventories, the uncertainties of sulfate, nitrate, and ammonium are all higher in summer than in winter. Among the three components, nitrate exhibits the largest seasonal variation in uncertainty, with its coefficient of variation (CV) approximately 67% higher in summer than in winter. Compared with ground-based observations, all bottom-up inventories except EDGAR generally underestimate sulfate and ammonium concentrations in both winter and summer. Nitrate is underestimated in all bottom-up inventories during summer, and in winter it remains underestimated except in HTAPv3. In contrast, the top-down CAQIEI inventory reproduces SNA component concentrations reasonably well in both seasons. These results highlight the differences in SNA simulations and their uncertainties across emission inventories, providing a scientific basis for understanding and reducing uncertainties in SNA modeling.

     

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