川西高原大渡河流域上游一次暴雨过程的数值模拟和动力因子演变特征分析
Numerical simulation analysis of a typical rainstorm process in the upper Dadu River basin
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摘要: 大渡河流域降水对流域径流量影响大,流域降水预报准确率对流域水资源调度及合理利用极其重要,其中,流域上游降水对流域中下游径流的影响更大,而目前对大渡河流域上游降水过程的研究不甚多见,也影响了其降水预报的准确率。本文选取2020年6月20日位于川西高原的大渡河流域上游一次高层辐散强迫不明显的降水过程,在天气环流分析基础上,利用中尺度数值模式对本次暴雨过程进行高分辨率数值模拟,在较好再现此次暴雨过程基础上,利用模拟结果进行了暴雨过程的动力因子演变特征分析。此次的暴雨强降水受中低层天气系统和地形共同影响。降水期间,大渡河流域位于南亚高压中心控制下,高层辐散抽吸作用不明显,但500 hPa有发展不强盛的西风槽东移,为降水提供了中层的弱上升运动背景。降水发生初期,600 hPa上,流域北部的偏东风受大雪山地形抬升产生降水。此后,由低层西南涡输送的东南暖湿气流进入流域中下游,引起降水进一步发展并东移,在大渡河中下游河谷至邛崃山地形一带出现另一个上升运动中心,雨带由此分化为两个降水中心并东移减弱。分析发现,湿热力平流参数、热力螺旋度和涡度散度梯度3个动力因子的垂直积分及水平分布与暴雨落区有较好的对应关系,其分布和发展与暴雨区的移动和发展趋势较为一致,可以很好地指示大渡河流域上游地形复杂区域暴雨系统的发展和动力演变过程。本研究的结果可以为川西高原陡峭地形区域和大渡河流域的降水预报提供参考,助力于我国西部地区水利资源的开发及利用。Abstract: Precipitation exerts a strong control on runoff in the Dadu River Basin, and the accuracy of basin-scale precipitation forecasts is crucial for water resources regulation and efficient utilization. In particular, precipitation over the upper reaches has a greater impact on runoff in the middle and lower reaches of the basin. However, studies focusing on precipitation processes in the upper Dadu River Basin remain limited, which constrains improvements in precipitation forecasting skill. This study examines a precipitation event that occurred on 20 June 2020 over the upper reaches of the Dadu River Basin on the western Sichuan Plateau, characterized by weak upper-level divergence forcing. Based on synoptic circulation analysis, a mesoscale numerical model is used to conduct high-resolution simulations of this heavy rainfall event. After successfully reproducing the main features of the rainfall process, the simulated results are further employed to analyze the evolution of dynamic factors associated with the event. The heavy rainfall was jointly influenced by mid–low-level weather systems and complex topography. During the precipitation period, the Dadu River Basin was controlled by the center of the South Asian High, with no pronounced upper-level divergent outflow, while a weakly developed westerly trough at 500 hPa moved eastward, providing a background of weak mid-level ascent. In the initial stage of precipitation, easterly flow over the northern part of the basin at 600 hPa was lifted by the Daxue Mountains, triggering rainfall. Subsequently, southeastward warm and moist airflow transported by a low-level southwest vortex entered the middle and lower reaches of the basin, leading to further development and eastward propagation of precipitation. Another ascent center formed from the middle–lower Dadu River valley to the Qionglai Mountains, causing the rain belt to split into two precipitation centers that later weakened while moving eastward. The analysis indicates that the vertical integrals and horizontal distributions of three dynamic factors—moist thermodynamic advection parameters, thermal helicity, and the vorticity–divergence gradient—correspond well with the locations of heavy rainfall. Their spatial patterns and evolution are consistent with the movement and development of the rainstorm, effectively indicating the evolution and dynamics of heavy rainfall systems over the complex terrain of the upper Dadu River Basin. The results provide useful references for precipitation forecasting over the steep terrain of the western Sichuan Plateau and the Dadu River Basin, and contribute to the development and utilization of water resources in western China.
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