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基于高分辨率模拟与卫星观测的全球海洋热浪数据集构建与评估

Construction and Evaluation of a Global Marine Heatwaves Dataset based on High-Resolution Simulations and Satellite Observations

  • 摘要: 为弥补长时序高分辨率海洋热浪(Marine Heatwaves, MHWs)数据缺失、提供更早期且连续一致的全球记录,研究基于中国科学院大气物理研究所自主研发的LASG/IAP气候系统海洋模式(LASG/IAP Climate System Ocean Model, LICOM)的高分辨率海表温度(Sea Surface Temperature, SST)模拟数据与最优插值海表温度(Optimum Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature, OISST),采用逐日百分位阈值方法识别事件,构建1969—2018年全球高分辨率MHW数据集。利用相关系数、空间相关与时间序列对比等方法评估LICOM对MHW的再现能力,分析MHW的时空分布、季节变化及其与中尺度涡和厄尔尼诺—南方涛动(El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation, ENSO)的关系。结果表明,LICOM能够再现MHW强度的空间型及频率的年际变化,但整体高估MHW频率与持续时间。北半球夏季MHW频率呈显著上升,其中中纬度海域贡献最大且强度整体较高。中尺度涡活跃区(如黑潮延伸体、湾流)的MHW强度、频率与持续时间显著高于非活跃区;厄尔尼诺(El Ni?o)期间全球MHW月平均发生频率较拉尼娜(La Ni?a)期间高出34.38%。该数据集可为MHW变化及其与中尺度涡、ENSO的关系研究提供长时序高分辨率数据支撑,并为高分辨率海洋模式偏差诊断与极端事件模拟改进提供参考。

     

    Abstract: To remedy the lack of long-term, high-resolution marine heatwaves (MHWs) data and to provide an earlier, temporally continuous and consistent global record, we developed a global high-resolution marine heatwave dataset spanning 1969—2018 based on high-resolution daily sea surface temperature (SST) from the LASG/IAP Climate System Ocean Model (LICOM) and the Optimum Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature (OISST) product. MHW events were identified using a daily percentile-threshold method. The performance of LICOM in reproducing MHWs was evaluated using correlation coefficients, spatial pattern comparisons, and time-series analyses, followed by an examination of the spatiotemporal characteristics and seasonal variability of MHWs and their links to mesoscale eddies and the El Ni?o–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The results indicate that LICOM reproduces the spatial pattern of MHW intensity and the interannual variability of MHW frequency, but systematically overestimates MHW frequency and duration. MHW frequency exhibits a significant increasing trend during boreal summer, dominated by contribution from mid-latitude oceans where MHW intensity is generally higher. Eddy-active regions (e.g., the Kuroshio Extension and the Gulf Stream) display markedly higher MHW intensity, frequency, and duration than eddy-inactive regions. The global monthly mean MHW frequency during El Ni?o is 34.38% higher than during La Ni?a. This dataset provides long-term, high-resolution data support for investigating MHW variability and its links to mesoscale eddies and ENSO, and offers a reference for bias diagnosis in high-resolution ocean models and for improving simulations of extreme events.

     

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