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万象GAP模型赋能风光新能源气象服务的技术框架与应用前景

Technical Framework and Application Prospects of GAP Model for Empowering Renewable Energy Meteorological Services

  • 摘要: 随着风光新能源在电力能源中占比的不断提高,精确的气象信息已经成为新型电力系统健康安全不可或缺的科技支撑。但传统气象产品在时空分辨率、中长期预报、转折性和极端性天气预报等方面与电力能源部门的需求有较大的差距。气象信息和预报精准性、时效性和确定性还远远不能满足电力用户的要求。近年来,人工智能(Artificial Intelligence,AI)在气象领域的快速发展,推动了数据驱动方法在气象预报中的广泛应用,为解决数值天气预报(Numerical Weather Prediction,NWP)在误差随时效累积、不确定性刻画受限、高分辨率和大样本预报计算成本高等方面的问题提供了新的技术路径。本文针对风光新能源对气象模拟预报的需求和存在的瓶颈问题,以中国科学院大气物理研究所发展的GAP生成式同化与预报模型(Generative Assimilation and Prediction,GAP)为例,介绍了AI模型在精准预报、极端事件预测、稀疏观测地区资料构建和中长期预报的能源气象适用性等领域显现出了优势。

     

    Abstract: With the continuous increase of the proportion of renewable energy sources in the power energy sector, precise meteorological information has become an indispensable technological support for the health and safety of the new power system. However, traditional meteorological products have significant gaps in terms of temporal and spatial resolution, medium- and long-term forecasting, abrupt and extreme weather forecasting, etc., compared with the requirements of the power energy department. The accuracy, timeliness and certainty of meteorological information and forecasts are still far from meeting the requirements of power users. In recent years, the rapid development of artificial intelligence (Artificial Intelligence, AI) in the field of meteorology has promoted the widespread application of data-driven methods in meteorological forecasting, providing new technical paths to solve the problems of numerical weather prediction (Numerical Weather Prediction, NWP) such as the accumulation of errors over time, limited characterization of uncertainty, high resolution and high computational cost of large sample forecasting. This paper, in response to the demand for meteorological simulation and forecasting by renewable energy sources and the existing bottleneck issues, takes the GAP generative assimilation and prediction model (Generative Assimilation and Prediction, GAP) developed by the Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Chinese Academy of Sciences as an example, and introduces the advantages of AI models in precise forecasting, extreme event prediction, data construction in sparse observation areas, and medium- and long-term forecasting in energy meteorology.

     

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