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基于人—地系统耦合模型探究全球分区域排放路径及气候变化经济影响

Exploring Global Regional Emission Pathways and Economic Impacts of Climate Change Using a Human–Earth System Coupled Model (HR-ESM)

  • 摘要: 选取更新版本的分区域的综合评估模型RICE2025耦合地球系统模式CESM2.1.5构建人—地系统耦合模型(HR2025-ESM),对比分析耦合RICE2010版本的模拟结果差异,并评估全球分区域的碳减排路径以及气候变化经济损失。利用人-地系统耦合模型(HR-ESM)分析全球以及12个区域的潜在碳排放变化以及区域未来气候变化潜在损失。结果表明,HR2025-ESM在历史气温模拟中误差有所降低(RMSE由0.39降至0.28),在中期(约2040年)全球排放降低约5.2 Gt(CO2),并在世纪末温升减少约0.2~0.3°C,同时显著降低气候变化经济损失,且这种差异在发展中地区更为突出。

     

    Abstract: An updated regional integrated assessment model, RICE2025, is coupled with the Earth system model CESM2.1.5 to construct a human–Earth system coupled model (HR2025-ESM). The simulation results are compared with those based on the earlier RICE2010 version, and regional carbon mitigation pathways as well as the economic losses associated with climate change are evaluated at the global scale. Using the HR-ESM framework, potential changes in carbon emissions and future climate-related damages are analyzed globally and across 12 regions under different mitigation scenarios. The results indicate that HR2025-ESM improves the accuracy of historical temperature simulations (RMSE reduced from 0.39 to 0.28), reduces global emissions by approximately 5.2 Gt(CO2) around 2040, and leads to a decrease in global warming of about 0.2–0.3°C by the end of the century. In addition, it significantly lowers climate change–induced economic losses, with more pronounced reductions observed in developing regions.

     

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