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面向澜沧江-湄公河流域季节降水预测的深度学习误差订正方法及其检验

Deep Learning Based Bias Correction Method for Seasonal Rainfall Prediction over Lancang-Mekong River Basin and its verification

  • 摘要: 澜沧江-湄公河流域(澜湄流域)作为亚洲关键的跨境水系,其夏季降水的准确预测对区域水资源调度及洪涝灾害防御具有重要意义。本文基于中国科学院大气物理所动力气候预测系统(IAP-DCPv3.5)1991-2020年的历史回报试验结果,首先评估了系统对澜湄流域夏季降水异常的预测性能,以及传统EOF订正方法对预测技巧的影响;随后通过引入影响流域降水的关键环流特征,提出基于U-Net模型的降水误差订正方案,并对模型中的环流特征提取方法进行了有效改进,显著提升了IAP-DCPv3.5对澜湄流域夏季降水的预测技巧。针对2021-2024年独立测试期的验证结果表明,U-Net订正方案大幅改善了模式的预测性能。针对3月、5月和6月起报的夏季平均降水,其平均绝对误差(MAE)较原始预测均降低了50%以上,同时也明显改善了IAP-DCPv3.5对夏季降水空间分布的预测能力,并克服了传统EOF方法订正的不稳定性。对于6月、5月和3月起报的夏季降水异常,原始模式预测的平均PCC预测技巧分别仅为0.09、-0.01和0.09,U-Net订正模型则将系统的PCC预测技巧分别提升至0.31、0.21和0.19。而对于EOF方法,在5月和6月起报的夏季降水异常PCC预测技巧反而分别降至-0.02和0.02。针对2021年全流域干旱的典型年份预测试验分析显示,U-Net方法成功预测出了与观测一致的降水异常的量级和空间分布特征,其中提前至3月份起报的PCC高达0.50,与6月份预测技巧相当。本文研究表明深度学习与数值模式预测的深度融合是提升季节气候预测技巧的有效途径。

     

    Abstract: As a crucial transboundary river system in Asia, the accurate prediction of summer precipitation in the Lancang-Mekong River Basin (LMRB) is of great significance for regional water resource management and flood disaster prevention. Based on historical hindcast experiments from 1991 to 2020 using the dynamical climate prediction system of the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences (IAP-DCPv3.5), this study first evaluates the system"s prediction performance for summer precipitation anomalies in the LMRB, as well as the impact of the traditional empirical orthogonal function (EOF) correction method on prediction skill. Subsequently, by incorporating key atmospheric circulation features that influence basin precipitation, a precipitation bias correction scheme based on the U-Net model is proposed. The circulation feature extraction method within the model is effectively optimized, significantly enhancing the prediction skill of IAP-DCPv3.5 for summer precipitation in the LMRB. Verification results from an independent testing period spanning 2021–2024 demonstrate that the U-Net correction scheme substantially improves the model"s prediction performance. For summer mean precipitation initialized in March, May, and June, the mean absolute error (MAE) is reduced by over 50% compared to the original predictions. Concurrently, it improves the spatial distribution characteristics of the summer precipitation predicted by IAP-DCPv3.5 and overcomes the instability inherent in the traditional EOF method. For summer precipitation anomalies initialized in June, May, and March, the average spatial correlation coefficients (PCC) of the original predictions are merely 0.09, -0.01, and 0.09, respectively. After applying the U-Net correction, the corresponding PCCs increase to 0.31, 0.21, and 0.19. In contrast, when using the EOF method, the PCCs for predictions initialized in May and June actually decrease to -0.02 and 0.02, respectively. Furthermore, an analysis of the typical basin-wide drought year in 2021 reveals that the U-Net method successfully predicts precipitation magnitudes and spatial distribution patterns that are highly consistent with observations; notably, the prediction initialized in March achieves a PCC as high as 0.50. This study demonstrates that the deep integration of deep learning with numerical model predictions is an effective approach to improving subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) climate prediction skills and extending prediction lead times.

     

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