高级检索

面向澜沧江—湄公河流域季节降水预测的深度学习误差订正方法及其检验

Deep Learning Based Bias Correction Method for Seasonal Rainfall Prediction over Lancang-Mekong River Basin and its Verification

  • 摘要: 基于中国科学院大气物理研究所动力气候预测系统(IAP-DCPv3.5)1991~2020年的历史回报试验结果,首先评估了系统对澜沧江—湄公河流域夏季降水异常的预测性能以及传统EOF订正方法对预测技巧的影响;随后通过引入影响流域降水的关键环流特征,提出基于U-Net模型的降水误差订正方案,并对模型中的环流特征提取方法进行了有效改进。针对2021~2024年独立测试期的验证结果表明,U-Net订正方案大幅改善了模式的预测性能。针对6月、5月和3月不同时刻起报的夏季平均降水,其平均绝对误差较原始预测均降低了50%以上;同时也明显改善了IAP-DCPv3.5对夏季降水异常空间分布的预测能力,并克服了传统EOF方法订正效果的不稳定性。对于6月、5月和3月起报的夏季降水异常,原始模式预测的平均空间相关系数(Pattern Correlation Coefficient, PCC)预测技巧分别为0.09、−0.01和0.09,U-Net订正模型则将系统的PCC预测技巧分别提升至0.31、0.21和0.19。而对于EOF方法,在5月和6月起报的夏季降水异常PCC预测技巧反而分别降至−0.02和0.02。针对2021年全流域干旱的典型年份预测试验分析显示,U-Net方法成功预测出了与观测一致的流域降水异常的量级和空间分布特征,其中提前至3月起报的PCC预测技巧可达0.50,与6月起报的预测技巧相当。研究表明深度学习与数值模式预测的深度融合是提升季节气候预测技巧的有效途径。

     

    Abstract: Based on hindcast experiment results from 1991 to 2020 using the dynamical climate prediction system of the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences (IAP-DCPv3.5), this study first evaluates the system's prediction skill for summer precipitation anomalies in the Lancang-Mekong River Basin (LMRB), as well as the impact of the Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) based correction method on seasonal prediction skill. Subsequently, by incorporating key atmospheric circulation features that influence precipitation in LMRB, a bias correction method based on the U-Net model is proposed, with the feature extraction technique for atmospheric circulations within the model being effectively optimized. Verifications with the observation during 2021–2024 demonstrate that the U-Net based correction method can substantially improve the model's seasonal rainfall prediction skill. For summer mean precipitation predictions initialized in June, May, and March, the mean absolute error is reduced by over 50% compared to the original predictions. Concurrently, it further improves the spatial distribution characteristics of the predicted summer precipitation anomalies by IAP-DCPv3.5 and overcomes the instability inherent in the traditional EOF based bias correction method. For the prediction skill of summer precipitation anomalies initialized in June, May, and March, the average spatial Pattern Correlation Coefficient (PCC) between the observation and the original predictions are merely 0.09, −0.01, and 0.09, respectively. After applying the U-Net correction method, the corresponding PCCs increase to 0.31, 0.21, and 0.19 respectively. In contrast, when using the EOF method, the PCCs for predictions initialized in May and June even decrease to −0.02 and 0.02, respectively. Verification of the prediction for typical basin-wide drought in 2021 reveals that, the U-Net method can successfully predict the observed magnitudes and spatial distribution patterns of the summer rainfall anomalies in the LMRB, with the PCC prediction skill initialized in March reaching as high as 0.50. This study demonstrates that the integration of deep learning technique with numerical model predictions is an effective approach for improving seasonal climate prediction capabilities.

     

/

返回文章
返回