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2026年汛期中国气候趋势预测与展望

Climate Prediction and Outlook in China for the 2026 Flood Season

  • 摘要: 2026年3月,中国科学院大气物理研究所开展2026年汛期(6~8月)全国气候趋势预测会商会,对汛期全国气候形势进行综合研判。目前海温的年代际背景为太平洋年代际振荡(PDO)处于较强的负位相时期,而大西洋多年代际振荡(AMO)则处于较强的正位相时期。最强年际变化信号El Niño-南方涛动(ENSO)的演变趋势为2025/2026年冬季的La Niña状态已衰减回归至正常状态,热带中东太平洋的海温将在2026年春末夏初迅速向偏暖方向发展,并将于2026年夏秋季大概率发展成一次中等到强的El Niño事件。通过综合分析年代际和年际外强迫信号、大气前兆信号以及各数值模式和统计模型的预测结果,预测2026年汛期(6~8月)东亚夏季风略偏强,西太平洋副热带高压(西太副高)强度偏强、西伸脊点偏西、脊线略偏北。2026年汛期降水异常特征为我国东部地区呈现南、北两条多雨带,主雨带偏北。东北大部、华北东部、黄淮流域、东南沿海、四川东部、陕西南部、西南地区南部及西藏大部降水较常年偏多,其中东北中部、华北东部降水偏多2~5成,局地可能发生洪涝灾害;全国其他大部分地区降水较常年偏少,其中长江中下游地区、新疆北部降水偏少2~5成,可能出现阶段性高温干旱。预计2026年夏季登陆我国台风数量正常略偏多。由于未来El Niño事件的发展速度存在一定不确定性,因此2026年夏季特别是盛夏期西太平洋暖池对流是否会显著偏强,从而导致西太副高异常偏北等仍有较大不确定性。数值模式对于季节内尺度大气环流异常变化的跨季度预测难免存在一定偏差,后续将持续关注海洋和大气环流关键系统的实际演变趋势,开展滚动更新预测工作。

     

    Abstract: In March 2026, the Annual Symposium on China Climate Prediction for the summer season (June–August) was held at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP), Chinese Academy of Sciences. Currently, the decadal modes of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) indicate the negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the positive phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Under a transition from a weak La Niña to an El Niño state in the next three to five months, climate anomalies are predicted in China for summer 2026 based on results from various numerical and statistical models developed by the IAP. During the 2026 flood season (June–August), the East Asian summer monsoon may be slightly stronger than normal, the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) will be stronger, its western ridge point may extend further westward, and its ridge line might be slightly northward. Seasonally averaged precipitation slightly exceeding normal levels might occur in most parts of Northeast China, eastern North China, the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River, the Yellow River and Huai River basins, the southeast coastal region of China, eastern Sichuan Province, southern Shaanxi Province, southern Southwest China, and most of Tibet. In particular, rainfall may be 20%–50% higher than normal in central Northeast China and eastern North China, implying a high possibility of local flooding disasters. In contrast, other parts of China may experience drier-than-normal conditions in the coming summer, with precipitation reduced by 20%–50% in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and northern Xinjiang. Furthermore, more typhoons may make landfall this summer. Due to uncertainty in the evolution trends of SST anomalies in tropical oceans and the limited ability to predict intraseasonal variations of the WPSH, mid-high-latitude atmospheric circulations, and western Pacific warm pool convection, these climate predictions for the 2026 flood season are uncertain to some extent. The authors will conduct supplementary forecasts based on observed variations in atmospheric and oceanic processes in the late spring and early summer of 2026.

     

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