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叶笃正先生“未来的天气气候预测体系”思想的科学内涵及其在人工智能时代的实现路径

Scientific Implications of Professor Ye Duzheng’s Concept of a Future Weather-Climate Prediction System and Its Implementation Pathways in the Age of Artificial Intelligence

  • 摘要: 在全球变化与人工智能快速发展的背景下,重新审视叶笃正等(2006)提出的“未来的天气气候预测体系”思想,不仅有助于理解天气气候预测能力演进的内在逻辑,也为人工智能时代预测体系重构提供了理论依据。结合现阶段气象学科的发展,本文对叶笃正思想进行了如下三方面的解读:第一,将叶先生相关论述概括为“体系化组织、不确定性管理、自然—人类耦合、用户导向”四个相互关联的核心维度;第二,指出天气气候预测能力的提升实质上是从单一模型技巧改进转向观测、资料同化、模式演化、评估检验与服务反馈协同耦合的闭环体系建设;第三,提出人工智能的现实意义不在于替代物理模式,而在于作为可嵌入预测体系的功能模块,在多源信息融合、概率集合生成、误差订正与替身参数化等环节推动体系的结构性重组。本文认为,未来综合预测体系的建设应以物理一致性、可校准的不确定性表达和可治理的系统更新机制为基本原则。

     

    Abstract: Reinterpreting Professor Ye Duzheng’s concept of a future weather–climate prediction system in the context of global change and rapid advances in Artificial Intelligence (AI) helps clarify both its scientific implications and its contemporary relevance. This paper makes three main points. First, Ye’s ideas can be organized around four linked dimensions: systems organization, uncertainty management, human–nature coupling, and user-oriented service. Second, improvements in prediction skill increasingly depend not on a single model alone, but on a closed-loop system integrating observations, data assimilation, model evolution, verification, and service feedback. Third, AI should be understood not as a substitute for physical models but as an embedded functional module that can enhance multi-source information fusion, probabilistic ensemble generation, bias correction, and surrogate parameterization. Future integrated prediction systems should therefore be built around physical consistency, calibrated uncertainty quantification, and governable update mechanisms.

     

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