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中国沿海城市群气候变化风险分析和应对战略研判

Risk Analysis and Strategies for Addressing Climate Change in Coastal City Clusters of China

  • 摘要: 当前全球变暖正在加速、气候极端性加剧,已经成为人类社会可持续发展面临的最大挑战,极端天气气候事件被全球风险报告列为未来十年的最大风险(https://www.weforumasia.cn/publications/global-risks-report-2026/2026-08-10)。我国沿海城市群是国家经济发展的战略核心区,是发展新质生产力的前沿阵地,但也是气候变化影响的“重灾区”,风险重大而复杂。因此,在中国科学院学部咨询评议项目的支持下,我们对中国沿海城市群的变暖加速和极端气候事件加剧的关键事实及灾害风险进行了梳理和评估。基于现有研究成果的综合评述与战略研判,特别分析了我国七大沿海城市群在应对可能的重大风险方面需要特别重视的问题和亟待加强的工作。从监测预警、联防联控、低碳发展、综合治理、区域协调等方面给出了建议措施,以期沿海城市群能够科学有效地应对气候变化风险,促进沿海城市群可持续发展和高质量发展,为国家实施“向海经济”战略保驾护航。

     

    Abstract: Global warming is currently accelerating and climate extremity is intensifying, becoming the greatest challenge to the sustainable development of human society. Extreme weather and climate events have been listed as the greatest risk over the next decade in the Global Risk Report (2026). China’s coastal city clusters are the strategic core areas for national economic development and the forefront for developing new forms of productivity, but they are also 'high-risk zones' for the impacts of climate change, with significant and complex risks. Therefore, with the support of the Chinese Academy of Sciences advisory and evaluation project, we have reviewed and assessed the key facts and disaster risks associated with accelerated warming and intensified extreme climate events in China coastal city clusters. This paper is a comprehensive review and strategic assessment based on existing research findings. The authors have paid particular attention to analyzing the issues that China major coastal city clusters need to address in response to potential major risks and prioritized works need to be strengthened. Suggestions are provided from the aspects of monitoring and early warning, joint prevention and joint control, low-carbon development, comprehensive governance, and regional coordination, aiming to enable coastal city clusters to addressing climate change risks in a scientific and effective approach, promoting sustainable and high-quality development of these coastal city clusters, and supporting the national ‘sea-oriented economy’ strategy.

     

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