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中国北方干旱化研究进展与展望

Aridification in Northern China: Progress, Mechanisms, and Future Perspectives

  • 摘要: 以中国科学院大气物理研究所团队近25年成果为主线,系统总结了北方干旱化的事实、驱动机制、人类活动影响与未来风险等研究的成果。研究表明,我国北方自20世纪70年代末以来显著干旱化,半干旱区最敏感,其边界向东南约扩展100~300 km;不同于地中海、美国西南等增温主导型干旱区,北方干旱化主要由降水减少驱动,增温增大蒸发需求而加剧。研究提出太平洋年代际振荡与北大西洋多年代际振荡“双洋协同”调控中国东部降水年代际变化机制,阐明华北干湿转折及2000年以来“南旱北涝”格局成因;发现干湿过渡带是我国陆气耦合最强区域,土壤湿度—蒸散发—降水正反馈加剧并延长干旱,近40年深层土壤湿度的记忆最多延长约40 d。GRACE与水文归因表明,大规模植被恢复引发“绿色荒漠化”,灌溉与地下水超采加剧黄淮海平原水储量亏损;未来增温下骤旱、复合干热事件及水资源风险将上升。以上结果表明,中国北方有别于多数旱区的干旱化机制。最后,对干旱归因、陆气耦合、极端事件机理及智能预测等关键科学问题进行了展望。

     

    Abstract: Drawing primarily on nearly 25 years of research by the group at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences (IAP, CAS), the authors systematically summarizes advances in the observational facts, driving mechanisms, anthropogenic influences, and future risks of aridification over northern China. Results show that northern China has undergone pronounced aridification since the late 1970s, with the semi-arid zone being the most sensitive region and its boundary migrating southeastward by approximately 100–300 km. In contrast to warming-dominated arid regions such as the Mediterranean and the southwestern United States, aridification over northern China is primarily driven by decreasing precipitation and is exacerbated by the enhanced atmospheric evaporative demand associated with warming. A “dual-ocean synergy” mechanism is proposed, whereby the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) jointly modulate the interdecadal variability of precipitation over eastern China, clarifying the wet–dry transition over North China and the origin of the “southern-drought, northern-flood” pattern since 2000. The wet–dry transition zone is identified as the region of strongest land–atmosphere coupling in China, where the soil moisture–evapotranspiration–precipitation positive feedback intensifies and prolongs drought; over the past four decades, deep-layer soil moisture memory has lengthened by up to approximately 40 days. GRACE observations combined with hydrological attribution indicate that large-scale vegetation restoration has induced “green desertification,” while agricultural irrigation and groundwater overexploitation have aggravated terrestrial water storage depletion over the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain. Under continued warming, flash droughts, compound dry–hot events, and water-resource risks are projected to increase. In summary, this paper reveals the aridification mechanisms that distinguish northern China from most arid regions and provides an outlook on key scientific issues, including drought attribution, land–atmosphere coupling, extreme-event mechanisms, and intelligent prediction.

     

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