Abstract:
Drawing primarily on nearly 25 years of research by the group at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences (IAP, CAS), the authors systematically summarizes advances in the observational facts, driving mechanisms, anthropogenic influences, and future risks of aridification over northern China. Results show that northern China has undergone pronounced aridification since the late 1970s, with the semi-arid zone being the most sensitive region and its boundary migrating southeastward by approximately 100–300 km. In contrast to warming-dominated arid regions such as the Mediterranean and the southwestern United States, aridification over northern China is primarily driven by decreasing precipitation and is exacerbated by the enhanced atmospheric evaporative demand associated with warming. A “dual-ocean synergy” mechanism is proposed, whereby the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) jointly modulate the interdecadal variability of precipitation over eastern China, clarifying the wet–dry transition over North China and the origin of the “southern-drought, northern-flood” pattern since 2000. The wet–dry transition zone is identified as the region of strongest land–atmosphere coupling in China, where the soil moisture–evapotranspiration–precipitation positive feedback intensifies and prolongs drought; over the past four decades, deep-layer soil moisture memory has lengthened by up to approximately 40 days. GRACE observations combined with hydrological attribution indicate that large-scale vegetation restoration has induced “green desertification,” while agricultural irrigation and groundwater overexploitation have aggravated terrestrial water storage depletion over the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain. Under continued warming, flash droughts, compound dry–hot events, and water-resource risks are projected to increase. In summary, this paper reveals the aridification mechanisms that distinguish northern China from most arid regions and provides an outlook on key scientific issues, including drought attribution, land–atmosphere coupling, extreme-event mechanisms, and intelligent prediction.