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气候变化影响粮食安全的多维度评价研究进展

Progress in Multi-Dimensional Evaluation of Climate Change Impacts on Food Security

  • 摘要: 基于粮食安全的综合性、系统性和多维度特质,阐明了粮食安全的多维度内涵和影响粮食安全的驱动机制;在此基础上着重回顾总结了气候变化影响粮食安全评估的现状,并简要探讨研究中存在问题和未来研究方向。结果表明:粮食安全的多维度内涵呈现国际标准与本土特色的协同演进特征;气候变化是影响粮食安全的重要驱动因素,它通过温度升高、极端事件频发及气候临界点逼近等多重路径,对粮食安全的各维度产生系统性级联冲击,并与其他社会经济因素交互作用形成复合放大效应。未来研究需结合多学科交叉融合方法,发展完善多框架融合评价的统一理论范式,推进气候模式、作物生长模型、经济均衡模型的深度耦合模拟,构建多源数据支撑、时空动态兼容、风险预警可预测的指标体系,结合新兴前沿技术优化多维度指标的权重分配,重点分析极端气候事件的多维瞬时冲击与气候临界点的系统性级联机制,为全球粮食安全治理和气候风险防范提供科学支撑。

     

    Abstract: Given the comprehensive, systematic, and multi-dimensional nature of food security, this research clarifies its multi-dimensional connotations and the driving mechanisms affecting it. On this basis, the review focuses on summarizing the current status of climate change impact assessment on food security, and briefly discusses existing research challenges and future directions. The results indicate that: The conceptual evolution of food security dimensions exhibits coordinated integration of international standards and localized characteristics, with climate change being a significant driving factor. Climate change, via multiple pathways such as temperature rise, more frequent extreme events, and the proximity of climate tipping points, exerts systematic cascading effects on every dimension of food security, and these effects interact with other socioeconomic drivers to produce compounded and amplified outcomes. Future research should adopt interdisciplinary integrated approaches to develop and refine a unified theoretical paradigm for multi-framework integrated evaluation, advance the in-depth coupled simulation of climate models, crop growth models and economic equilibrium models, establish an indicator system supported by multi-source data, compatible with spatio-temporal dynamics and capable of predictable risk early warning, optimize the weight distribution of multi-dimensional indicators with emerging cutting-edge technologies, and focus on analyzing the multi-dimensional instantaneous impacts of extreme climate events and the systematic cascading mechanisms of climate tipping points, so as to provide scientific support for global food security governance and climate risk prevention.

     

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