Abstract:
The WRF/CALPUFF (Weather Research and Forecasting Model/California puff Model) modeling system was applied to systematically examine the effects of temperature variations on various types of atmospheric pollutants in Baoshan District, Shanghai, in 2023. A series of temperature-sensitivity experiments were performed, and the results indicated that gaseous pollutants, such as SO
2 and NO
x, because of their inherently strong dispersion capacity, showed no evident correlation with diurnal temperature variation. In contrast, particulate pollutants (PM2.5 and PM10) exhibited markedly larger concentration changes with an increasing diurnal temperature range, indicating high sensitivity to thermal variability. Based on the January dispersion simulations of PM2.5 and PM10, additional sensitivity tests were conducted by adjusting the temperature field. The findings revealed that the influence of increasing temperatures on pollutant concentrations was not a simple linear relationship; instead, it showed dual characteristics in both spatial dispersion range and concentration change. In particular, warming decreased pollutant concentrations along the original dispersion pathways while simultaneously expanding the overall dispersion range, resulting in elevated concentrations in newly affected areas. Nevertheless, regions with concentration reductions predominated. Quantitatively, for every 1°C increase in temperature, the average PM2.5 concentration within the original trajectory decreased by 0.04 μg m
−3, and PM10 decreased by 0.06 μg m
−3. Mechanistically, warming modified the intensity of the near-surface temperature inversion: Under inversion conditions, relatively high near-surface temperatures weakened or even eliminated the inversion layer, diminishing its suppressive effect on pollutant dispersion and enhancing both vertical and horizontal transport of particulates, thereby lowering their concentrations. Conversely, in the absence of an inversion layer, pollutants already possessed strong dispersion potential, and additional warming exerted only marginal effects on dispersion, leading to comparatively minor concentration changes.