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基于CALPUFF模型探究温度变化对大气污染扩散的影响

Exploring the Impact of Temperature Changes on Air Pollution Dispersion Based on CALPUFF Model

  • 摘要: 为了探究大气温度场对污染物扩散特征的影响,基于WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting Model)和CALPUFF(California puff Mode)空气质量模型,分析了2023年上海市宝山区不同种类大气污染物对温度变化的影响。研究结果表明,因本身扩散能力较强,气体污染物SO2和NOx对日温差的关联性不能很好地表现出来。而对于颗粒污染物PM2.5和PM10,随着温差增大,其浓度变化显著增加,表明颗粒污染物浓度对温度变化具有较强的敏感性。因此,本文基于1月PM2.5和PM10的扩散结果,通过调整温度开展敏感性实验。研究发现,温度升高不仅影响污染物浓度,还改变其扩散范围,表现出浓度变化与扩散范围扩展的双重特性,具体表现为:随着温度升高,污染物在原有扩散轨迹内的浓度降低,同时扩散范围扩大,导致新扩散轨迹内污染物浓度有所上升。然而,从整体来看,污染物浓度下降的区域占主导地位,具体而言,温度每上升1°C,原有扩散轨迹内PM2.5的平均浓度下降0.04 μg m−3,PM10的平均浓度下降0.06 μg m−3。温度上升改变了近地面层的逆温强度,当存在逆温环境时,提高近地面温度会削弱甚至消除逆温效应,从而降低逆温对污染扩散的抑制作用,提高颗粒污染物的垂直以及水平扩散能力,导致污染物浓度显著降低。相反,当不存在逆温时,污染物已具有较强的水平和垂直扩散能力,此时提高近地面温度对扩散能力的影响较小,因此污染物浓度变化较为有限。

     

    Abstract: The WRF/CALPUFF (Weather Research and Forecasting Model/California puff Model) modeling system was applied to systematically examine the effects of temperature variations on various types of atmospheric pollutants in Baoshan District, Shanghai, in 2023. A series of temperature-sensitivity experiments were performed, and the results indicated that gaseous pollutants, such as SO2 and NOx, because of their inherently strong dispersion capacity, showed no evident correlation with diurnal temperature variation. In contrast, particulate pollutants (PM2.5 and PM10) exhibited markedly larger concentration changes with an increasing diurnal temperature range, indicating high sensitivity to thermal variability. Based on the January dispersion simulations of PM2.5 and PM10, additional sensitivity tests were conducted by adjusting the temperature field. The findings revealed that the influence of increasing temperatures on pollutant concentrations was not a simple linear relationship; instead, it showed dual characteristics in both spatial dispersion range and concentration change. In particular, warming decreased pollutant concentrations along the original dispersion pathways while simultaneously expanding the overall dispersion range, resulting in elevated concentrations in newly affected areas. Nevertheless, regions with concentration reductions predominated. Quantitatively, for every 1°C increase in temperature, the average PM2.5 concentration within the original trajectory decreased by 0.04 μg m−3, and PM10 decreased by 0.06 μg m−3. Mechanistically, warming modified the intensity of the near-surface temperature inversion: Under inversion conditions, relatively high near-surface temperatures weakened or even eliminated the inversion layer, diminishing its suppressive effect on pollutant dispersion and enhancing both vertical and horizontal transport of particulates, thereby lowering their concentrations. Conversely, in the absence of an inversion layer, pollutants already possessed strong dispersion potential, and additional warming exerted only marginal effects on dispersion, leading to comparatively minor concentration changes.

     

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