Statistical prediction for near-surface ozone concentration during summer in China based on atmospheric external forcing factors

This study utilized observational and reanalysis data to reveal the main external forcing factors of sea surface temperature (SST) that influenced the long-term evolution of near-surface O3 concentration during summer in China from 2013 to 2020. Then, a statistical prediction model was further constructed using the multiple linear regression equations of summer O3. The conclusions drawn are as follows: (1) The near-surface O3 concentration during summer in China, especially in East China and South China, shows certain fluctuating upward characteristics. It is revealed that the atmospheric external forcing factors influencing the variation of O3 concentration during summer in China include the Maritime Continental SST anomalies and the North-South dipole-type SST anomalies over the North Atlantic. (2) The Maritime continental SST anomalies affect variations of O3 concentration in China by regulating local circulations, while those over the North Atlantic are by exciting the eastward Rossby wave train. (3) Using the trend factor of O3 concentration and the identified regional SST factors, we have constructed a statistical regression prediction model for variations of O3 concentration during summer in China. This prediction model can accurately predict the changes and spatial distribution of O3 concentration across the country and in different subregions during the hindcast period. Hence, the achievements of the study has certain predictive potential and application value.