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中国东部夏季降水模态对不同二氧化碳浓度增加过程的响应

Response of Eastern China Summer Rainfall Modes to Increased Carbon Dioxide Concentration

  • 摘要: 中国东部夏季的旱涝特征通常表现为经向多极型的空间分布,研究其在全球增暖背景下的变化对水资源管理、农业发展规划以及防灾减灾等具有重要意义。然而,目前针对降水模态对增暖响应的研究较少考虑模式内部变率的影响。基于此,本文通过对比多组第五次耦合模式比较计划(CMIP5)的模式试验,在考虑模式内部变率的前提下,分析了不同CO2浓度增加过程对中国东部夏季降水模态的影响。结果表明:CO2浓度增加不会改变中国东部降水异常主模态的空间结构,在骤增4倍CO2浓度试验(4×CO2)和每年渐增1%CO2浓度试验(1%CO2)中偶极型和三极型模态仍是该地区降水变率的主模态,以偶极型模态更为主导,但这两种模态的出现频率、强度和变化趋势会发生改变。相较工业革命前参考试验(piControl),在4×CO2试验中,大部分模式的三极型和偶极型模态变率均变小;在1%CO2试验中,大部分模式的偶极型模态变率增大,而三极型模态变率减小。随着CO2浓度的逐渐累积,三极型和偶极型模态都将出现明显的位相转变特征,将更多的出现长江中下游地区降水偏少同时华南、华北降水偏多的三极型格局,以及“南涝北旱”的偶极型格局。在4×CO2试验中,三极型和偶极型模态对应的海温和环流异常相对piControl试验整体显著减弱;而在1%CO2试验中,其差异具有区域性,三极型模态对应更弱的印度洋和西北太平洋海温异常,而偶极型模态则对应更强的赤道中东太平洋和北太平洋海温异常。

     

    Abstract: The spatial distribution of summer rainfall anomalies over eastern China are often characterized by meridionally banded structures. The possible change of these structures in response to global warming is of great significance to water resource management, agricultural development planning, and disaster prevention. Previous studies have shown the critical role of climate variability in modulating these rainfall modes, while studies have seldom considered the model’s internal variability when investigating the responses of rainfall modes to increased greenhouse gas concentration. Based on model simulations with different forcing under CMIP5 (the fifth Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project), this paper analyzes the response of the leading modes of eastern China summer rainfall to increased CO2 concentration considering the model’s internal variability. Results showed that the increased CO2 concentration did not change the leading modes of eastern China’s summer rainfall. The triple and dipole modes observed during recent decades remained the leading modes in the abrupt quadruple CO2 concentration experiment (4×CO2), and 1% per year increased until quadrupled CO2 concentration experiment (1%CO2), with the dipole mode playing a more dominant role. However, the frequency, intensity, and trend of these modes changed. Compared to pre-industrial control simulation (piControl), the temporal variability of the triple and dipole modes decreased under 4×CO2 forcing. The variability of the dipole mode intensified while the triple mode weakened under 1%CO2 forcing. With the gradual accumulation of CO2, the occurrence of the positive and negative phases of these modes changed. The phase of the triple mode, which featured drought over the Yangtze River Basin and floods over North and South China, would happen more frequently. So does the “Southern flood and northern drought” phase of the dipole mode. Compared to the piControl simulation, the sea surface temperature and atmospheric circulation anomalies associated with the dipole and triple modes weakened under 4×CO2 forcing. While under 1%CO2 forcing, their differences exhibited regional dependence. The triple mode was associated with weakened anomalies over the Indian and western North Pacific Ocean, while the dipole mode was related to strong central and eastern tropical Pacific and North Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies.

     

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