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两种分辨率全球模式对中国区域天气模拟能力分析

Analysis of the Ability of Two Resolution Global Models to Simulate Regional Weather in China

  • 摘要: 数值天气模式模拟效果的改进依赖于模式物理过程的完善、模式初始场的改进以及模式空间分辨率的提高,其中模式分辨率的提高已成为改善模式模拟效果一个有效途径。基于全球数值预报模式,利用T1534(13 km)和T254(55 km)两种不同分辨率模式进行预报,并对中国区域气温、气压、风速和降水模拟效果进行分析。结果表明:两种分辨率模拟针对中国区域逐日气压的模拟中,华北地区的模拟效果最好,7个子区域的均方根误差随着分辨率增高均显著降低;对逐日气温的模拟中,对东部地区的模拟效果优于西部地区;对风速的模拟中,对于西北地区而言,随着模式分辨率的增加,风速均方根误差却小幅度增大。模式对气压、气温等具有较强周期变化规律的模式变量模拟效果要好于风速等周期变化不明显的变量。造成差异的原因主要是风速的局地性较强,受地形和下垫面类型的影响较大,仅提高模式分辨率不一定能对风速的模拟起到积极的作用。针对2019年8月10日山东地区发生强降水天气过程,两种不同分辨率模式均能较好地模拟出降水特征,模拟的降水落区覆盖了实际降水落区,高分辨率模式预报各种降水等级的偏差评分均低于低分辨率。此次强降水过程在降水当日相对湿度接近于饱和状态,易于凝结,且随着模式分辨率的提高,相对湿度增强,结构更加精细,同时高分辨率模式模拟的低层气旋中心气压较低分辨率模式更低,气旋的强度更大,对流降水过程更强。

     

    Abstract: Improving numerical weather prediction depends on enhancing the model’s physical processes, initial fields, and spatial resolution. Among these, improving model resolution has proven to be an effective method for boosting prediction accuracy. Using the global forecast system, this study compares two models with different resolutions, T1534 (13 km) and T254 (55 km), to forecast temperature, pressure, wind speed, and precipitation across China. The results show that in simulating daily air pressure over China, the models perform best in North China. Across seven subregions, the root mean square error decreases significantly as the resolution increases. For daily temperature simulations, the eastern region shows better accuracy compared to the western region. However, when simulating wind speed in the northwest region, the root mean square error increases slightly with higher resolution. Overall, model variables with strong periodic changes, such as air pressure and temperature, are better simulated than those with weaker periodic changes, like wind speed. This difference is primarily attributed to the localized and terrain-sensitive nature of wind speed. A heavy precipitation event in Shandong on 10 August 2019, demonstrated that the two models with different resolutions effectively simulated the precipitation characteristics and matched the observed precipitation falling area. However, the high-resolution model exhibited greater accuracy, with lower deviation scores across various precipitation grades. In this heavy precipitation process, relative humidity was close to saturation, creating favorable conditions for condensation. The high-resolution model captured this more precisely, showing enhanced relative humidity and finer structural detail. Meanwhile, the central pressure of the low-level cyclone simulated by the high-resolution model was lower than that of the low-resolution model. This resulted in a stronger cyclone and a more intense convective precipitation process.

     

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