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人为辐射强迫加速近期冬春季青藏高原东部雪深消融速率

Anthropogenic Radiative Forcing Has Accelerated the Melting Rates of Winter and Spring Snow Depth in the Eastern Qinghai–Xizang Plateau during Recent Decades

  • 摘要: 冬春季青藏高原东部平均雪深具有明显的年代际变化特征,大约20世纪90年代之前呈现显著增加趋势,之后为显著减少趋势。本文首先利用观测资料分析1960~1989年和1990~2014年两阶段青藏高原东部冬春季雪深与相关气象要素场(包括气温和降水)和大气环流条件等的趋势及其相互联系。其次选用CESM2模式的三套历史输出资料,包括:(1)全部外部辐射强迫、(2)温室气体辐射强迫和(3)人为气溶胶辐射强迫等不同模拟方案,评估辐射强迫和北大西洋涛动(NAO)对两个阶段冬春季青藏高原东部雪深趋势的分别影响。观测分析表明,1990年以后冬季雪深减少趋势主要由地表气温升高和降雪减少共同导致,而春季雪深减少则主要由地表气温升高所致。对比分析观测和模拟雪深及其与大气变量趋势之间的关系,结果表明,全部辐射强迫或者单独的温室气体和气溶胶辐射强迫对1960~1989年间高原东部雪深增加趋势贡献较少,NAO大约解释49%的冬季雪深增加趋势,但对春季增加趋势贡献较少。全部辐射强迫导致青藏高原东部1990~2014年间显著增温,降雪减少,对后期冬春季雪深均持续减少有显著贡献,可以解释后期观测大约29%的冬季和82%的春季站点平均积雪减少趋势。其中温室气体强迫和气溶胶辐射强迫对高原增温均有显著贡献,共同导致冬春季高原东部雪深的减少。NAO指数下降趋势可解释1990~2014年青藏高原东部冬季积雪雪深减少的22%,但对春季雪深减少贡献较小。随着未来人为温室气体增加和气溶胶排放减少,预期高原东部增暖将进一步加剧,冬春季节高原东部雪深将持续减少。

     

    Abstract: The winter and spring snow depths on the eastern Qinghai–Xizang Plateau (QXP) and surrounding areas exhibit interdecadal variability, demonstrating a significantly increased trend approximately before 1990 and a decreased trend thereafter. In this paper, we first analyze the trends of the winter and spring snow depths over the eastern QXP during 1960–1989 and 1990–2014 and their relationships with the trends of temperature, precipitation, and other atmospheric circulation conditions. Three sets of outputs from the Community Earth System Model Version 2 (CESM2) model, including (1) the total external radiative forcing, (2) the well-mixed greenhouse gas radiative forcing, and (3) the anthropogenic aerosol radiative forcing, are then used to assess the respective contributions of radiative forcing and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) to the snow depth trends in the eastern QXP in the winter and spring during 1960–1989 and 1990–2014. Observational analyses indicate that a snow reduction post-1990 was mainly caused by increasing surface air temperature and decreasing snowfall, while spring snow depth was mainly caused by increasing surface air temperature. During 1960–1989, all radiative forcing, greenhouse gas forcing only, or aerosol forcing only contributed little to the increased trends of the winter and spring snow depths over the eastern QXP. The NAO instead contributed to approximately 49% of the increased trends of the winter snow depth over the eastern QXP, but it had little impact on the increased spring snow depth trends over the eastern QXP. Comparison of observed and modeled trends for other atmospheric variables suggests that all radiative forcing led to significant warming and reduced snowfall on the eastern QXP from 1990 to 2014. This warming contributed significantly to the continued reduction in the winter and spring snow depths in the later period, explaining the 29% and 82% of the observed winter snow depth reduction in the later period. Greenhouse gas forcing and aerosol radiative forcing contributed to plateau warming significantly and the reduction in the snow depth in the eastern QXP in winter and spring during 1990–2014. The decreasing trend observed in the NAO index can explain the 22% reduction in the snow depth noted in the eastern QXP in winter from 1990–2014, but it contributed slightly to the reduction in the snow depth in spring. With future increases in anthropogenic greenhouse gases and decreases in aerosol emissions, warming in the eastern QXP is expected to intensify further, and the snow depth in this area will continue to decrease.

     

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