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不同模式背景场对复杂山地百米级温度和风场融合预报影响的对比

Comparison on the Influence of Different Model Backgrounds on the 100-m Resolution Integrated Forecasts for the Temperature and Wind in Complex Terrain

  • 摘要: 基于高分辨率快速更新无缝隙融合集成预报RISE系统(Rapid-refresh Integrated Seamless Ensemble system),采用华北3 km分辨率快速循环更新的中尺度数值模式CMA-BJ、欧洲中心0.125°分辨率全球数值模式ECMWF、常规自动站和冬奥赛道加密自动站逐时观测资料,以北京冬奥会复杂山地为研究区域,对比分析了不同模式背景场对100 m网格分辨率的地面2 m温度和10 m风场融合分析场和1~24 h逐小时间隔预报准确性的影响。对比试验结果表明:(1)采用区域模式和全球模式的预报数据作为RISE系统背景场,均可有效形成复杂山地百米级精细化融合产品,但不同模式背景场对不同气象要素分析和预报性能的影响存在明显差异;(2)对于温度分析场,以CAM-BJ和ECMWF模式的预报数据为背景场的RISE温度分析场空间分布基本一致,分析平均绝对误差(MAE)均小于0.2℃;(3)对于风场分析场,采用高分辨率区域模式比粗分辨率全球模式更能提升RISE高精度风场融合产品精细化水平;(4)对于温度预报,以ECMWF模式的预报数据为背景场的RISE格点融合预报性能显著优于CMA-BJ模式的预报数据为背景场,冬奥高山站和所有站平均预报MAE分别减小10.5%和7.0%;(5)对于风场预报,以CAM-BJ和ECMWF模式的预报数据为背景场的RISE冬奥高山站临近1~6 h风速预报MAE分别为1.42 m s−1和1.30 m s−1,7~24 h预报MAE则分别为1.52 m s−1和1.54 m s−1,而RISE区域内所有站1~24 h平均MAE分别为1.38 m s−1和1.24 m s−1。研究成果有助于深入理解模式背景场在百米级融合预报中的作用,对提升复杂地形下天气预报准确性有重要的科学意义和业务应用价值。

     

    Abstract: This study evaluates the impact of different NWP (Numerical Weather Prediction) model backgrounds on the accuracy of fusion analysis for the surface temperature at 2-m height and wind at 10-m height, as well as hourly forecasts for the future 1–24 h at a high spatial resolution of 100 m. The research focuses on the outdoor mountainous competition areas of the Beijing Winter Olympics, utilizing RISE (Rapid-refresh Integrated Seamless Ensemble) system. This approach integrates the mesoscale CMA-BJ model, with a 3-km resolution, and the global-scale ECMWF model, with a resolution of 0.125°. The results show the following: (1) High-resolution refined fusion analysis products at 100-m resolution can be formed by using different model backgrounds through RISE downscaling over complex terrain and the rapid integration of observational data. However, the influence of different model background fields varies obviously depending on the meteorological elements. (2) For temperature analysis, the spatial distribution of RISE analysis field based on the forecast data of CAM-BJ and ECMWF models is basically the same, and MAE (mean absolute error) of analysis is less than 0.2℃. (3) For wind analysis, the refinement level of RISE high-precision wind field can be improved by adopting high-resolution regional model background rather than coarse resolution global model. (4) For temperature forecasts, the predictive precision using the lower-resolution ECMWF model as the background is comparable to that of the CMA-BJ model using higher spatial and temporal resolution. Furthermore, temperature forecasting accuracy improves consistently, with the average forecast MAE reduction rates of 10.5% for the Winter Olympic alpine stations and 7.0% for all stations within the RISE region. (5) For wind forecasts, the 1–6 h forecast MAE of the RISE for Winter Olympic alpine stations based on CAM-BJ and ECMWF as backgrounds is 1.42 m s−1 and 1.30 m s−1, and the 7–24 h forecast MAE is 1.52 m s−1 and 1.54 m s−1, respectively. The mean 1–24 h forecast MAE of all stations in RISE region is 1.38 m s−1 and 1.24 m s−1, respectively. The precision level of 100-m resolution predictions is lower when the ECMWF model serves as the background compared to the CMA-BJ model. The results of this study provide important insights into the role of model background in integrated forecasting at 100-m resolution. The study holds important scientific significance and practical value for improving the accuracy of weather forecasting in complex terrain.

     

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