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二级地形东移的中尺度对流系统影响下游降水的典型个例

Typical Case of Impact of a Typical Eastward-Propagating Mesoscale Convective System over the Second-Step Terrain on Downstream Rainfall

  • 摘要: 本文针对发生在2016年6月29日至7月1日的一次典型二级地形中尺度对流系统(mesoscale convective system, MCS)东移与高原东移对流合并影响下游对流系统个例开展数值模拟研究。本次过程导致长江中游至江淮流域地区出现了一次范围较大的强降水过程。高分辨率的数值模拟清楚地再现了二级地形对流东移与高原东移对流合并发展影响下游对流系统的发展过程,较好地刻画出长江中下游地区降水的时空分布特征。此次对流发展过程主要经历形成、移出、合并和减弱阶段。在形成阶段,由于西南低涡东北的气旋式扰动,二级地形MCS于夜间在西部山地地区形成,至次日凌晨东移到二级地形东部边界并且增强发展。发展加强后的二级地形MCS逐渐移出地形之后下游已有零散对流(高原东部对流东移至二级地形东部所致)在午后逐渐组织起来,受到夜间增强的低空急流影响,与二级地形东移对流合并发展。合并后的MCS东移并发展,推动上升运动增强,从而低层辐合增强,对流层低层诱发中尺度涡旋,涡旋和对流共同发展,引发长江中下游地区强降水。

     

    Abstract: A typical MCS (mesoscale convective system) forming over the second-step terrain, moving eastward, merging with convection from the eastern edge of the Qinghai–Xizang Plateau (QXP), and influencing downstream convection systems was analyzed through numerical simulations. This case occurring from 29 June to 1 July 2016, caused heavy precipitation from the middle reaches of the Yangtze River to the Yangtze–Huai River basin. This simulation successfully reproduced the eastward movement of the MCS over the second-step terrain and its merger with the convection moving eastward from the QXP, thus affecting downstream convective systems. The results revealed the spatiotemporal patterns of precipitation across the middle and lower Yangtze River regions. The evolution of the MCS is classified into four stages: Formation, propagation, merging, and weakening. Initiated by a cyclonic disturbance in the northeastern part of the Southwest vortex, the MCS formed over the western mountainous areas over the second-step terrain. Upon exiting the second-step terrain, the MCS merged with eastward-propagating convection from the QXP over downstream areas. This merging promoted the strong development of upward motion, enhanced low-level convergence, and generated a mesoscale vortex in the lower troposphere. The integration between the mesoscale vortex and the merged convection promoted their coupling and triggered heavy rainfall in the eastern plains beyond the second-step terrain.

     

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