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与年代际有关的太平洋和北大西洋海表温度变率对1979~2014年南极海冰趋势季节性及区域性贡献的比较

A Comparison on the Contributions of Interdecadal SST Variability over the Pacific and North Atlantic Oceans to Regional and Seasonal Trends of Antarctic Sea Ice from 1979 to 2014

  • 摘要: 基于美国国家冰雪数据中心最新发布的卫星观测海冰资料,本文分析了1979~2014年南极海冰空间趋势的季节变化特征,并比较了太平洋年代际振荡(IPO)和大西洋多年代际振荡(AMO)位相转换对南极海冰趋势的相对贡献与影响机制。结果表明:1979~2014年间,罗斯海和南印度洋四个季节海冰密集度(SIC)均呈现增加趋势,在暖季(12~5月),阿蒙森海和别林斯高晋海的SIC显著减少,威德尔海的SIC显著增加,呈正位相的南极偶极子型(ADP),而在冷季(6~11月份),阿蒙森海—别林斯高晋海—威德尔海SIC表现为负位相ADP趋势,南极整体年平均和季节平均海冰范围(SIE)均具有显著增加趋势。1979~2014年IPO从正位相向负位相转换通过激发太平洋—南美(PSA)大气遥相关加深阿蒙森海低压(ASL),为南半球冬季和春季负ADP海冰趋势的主要成因。1979~2014年AMO从负位相向正位相转换在南半球春季通过激发罗斯贝波和跨海盆激发PSA波列,加深ASL,并可能通过减弱埃克曼抽吸抑制绕极近海混合层暖海水上翻,进而导致东罗斯海、阿蒙森海及南印度洋的海冰显著增加,解释约75%的春季南极整体SIE增加趋势。在南半球夏季,IPO和AMO位相转换均可增强南半球环状模(SAM),从而对夏季南极海冰增加和正位相ADP型海冰趋势有一定贡献。以上结果表明1979~2014年IPO和AMO位相转换通过大气遥相关机制对南极海冰趋势产生的影响呈现明显的季节性和区域性差异。

     

    Abstract: This study investigates the latest satellite-derived sea ice data from National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) to analyze the seasonal variation for spatial trends of Antarctic sea ice from 1979 to 2014. It also examines the relative contributions of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) phase shifts to these trends, along with the associated mechanisms. Results indicate that SIC (sea ice concentration) in the Ross Sea and the South Indian Ocean showed increasing trends across all four seasons from 1979 to 2014. During warm seasons (December to May), SIC decreased significantly in the Amundsen–Bellingshausen Seas and increased in the Weddell Sea, resembling a positive phase of the Antarctic Dipole (ADP). Conversely, during cold seasons (June to November), SIC trends in the Amundsen–Bellingshausen–Weddell Seas displayed a negative phase of ADP. Likewise, annual and seasonal Antarctic sea ice extent (SIE) exhibited significant upward trends. The IPO’s phase transition from a positive to negative (1979–2014) intensified the Amundsen Sea Low (ASL) by exciting the Pacific–South America (PSA) atmospheric teleconnection, which significantly contributed to the negative phase of ADP during austral winter and spring. Similarly, during austral spring, the AMO’s transition from a negative to a positive phase during the same period further deepened the ASL by exciting a Rossby wave and PSA wave train across the South Pacific basin. This process reduced warm water by weakening Ekman suction, contributing to the negative ADP and increasing sea ice trend in the eastern Ross Sea, Amundsen Sea, and Indian Ocean. The AMO’s phase shift accounted for approximately 75% of the austral spring Antarctic SIE increase. 75% of the austral spring Antarctic SIE increase. During austral summer, the phase transitions of both the IPO and AMO may have strengthened the southern annular mode, further contributing to the increased trend of Antarctic sea ice. Our results suggest the seasonal and regional impacts of IPO and AMO phase shifts on Antarctic sea ice trends, mediated through atmospheric teleconnection mechanisms.

     

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