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高影响西南涡发展指数探索

Research on the Development Index of High Impact Southwest China Vortex

  • 摘要: 本文采用ERA5(0.25°×0.25°)逐时再分析资料,分析了长距离移动和稳定少动两次高影响西南涡过程,基于影响西南涡过程的关键因子构建了低涡发展指数,探讨了低涡发展指数与西南涡及降水演变的关系,结果表明:(1)大气中低层辐合和假相当位温是影响低涡发展演变的关键物理因子;(2)无论长距离移动还是稳定少动的西南涡过程,低涡发展指数均可以指示出低涡强度和位置的发展演变趋势,还能解释一涡多心现象,以及解释西南涡发展演变机理;(3)低涡发展指数既可能指示低涡降水的强度和落区,又能反映西南涡与降水之间互存共生的关系,为“涡生雨”和“雨生涡”现象提供了可能的机理解释。该指数对西南涡暴雨预报具有参考价值。

     

    Abstract: Based on the ERA5 (0.25°×0.25°) hourly reanalysis data, this study analyzes two high-impact Southwest China Vortex (SWV) processes with long-distance movement and stagnation over a local area. It is suggested that two physical variables, namely, the low- to mid-level convergence and pseudoequivalent potential temperature, are the key factors influencing the development and evolution of the vortex. According to the findings, a vortex development index is defined in this study. By comparing the vortex development index with the evolution of the SWV and precipitation, the following results were obtained. (1) The vortex development index can indicate the development and evolution trend of the intensity and position of the vortex, whether it is a long-distance moving or a local stationary SWV process. In addition, the index can reveal multicore vortices during intense vortex events and the moving mechanism of the SWV. (2) The vortex development index not only indicates the intensity and coverage area of vortex precipitation but also reflects the coexistence phenomenon between SWV and precipitation, thereby providing a possible explanation for the “rain-induced vortex” and “vortex-induced rain” phenomena. The results of this study suggest the positive significance of the vortex development index in forecasting the precipitation distribution and the position of the precipitation center of high-impact SWV heavy rainfall events.

     

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