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华南暴雨模拟中物理过程参数化不确定性的量化分析

Quantitative Analysis of Parameterized Uncertainty of Physical Processes in Rainstorm Simulation over Southern China

  • 摘要: 模式中物理过程的不确定性对预报准确率的影响受到越来越多的关注。本文采用WRF(v4.4)模式,以2020年5月21~22日一次华南暴雨为例,使用多因素方差分析以及Tukey’ s检验方法量化了与降水密切相关的云微物理过程、边界层过程和积云对流过程的不确定性以及同一物理过程中不同参数化方案的差异,并进一步分析了云微物理方案差异对降水模拟误差的影响。结果显示:云微物理方案对于降水模拟结果以及模式预报效果最为重要,且不同物理过程之间的相互作用对模拟结果的影响不可被忽略。在此基础上,基于泰勒评分挑选出最优参数化方案组合为WSM7云微物理方案+YSU边界层方案+GF积云对流方案。从不同云微物理方案的水成物和微物理转换过程上看,雹在此次极端降水的模拟中扮演重要角色;雨滴比含水量的变化主要源自冰相粒子的融化项;而雨滴蒸发量通过潜热吸收的方式影响冷池强度,进而影响后续的降水传播,并最终作用于强降水落区的分布。

     

    Abstract: Increasing attention has been directed toward the impact of the uncertainty of the physical processes on prediction accuracy. This study utilizes the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF v4.4) model, and it considers a rainstorm in South China from May 21 to 22, 2020, as an example to quantify the uncertainty among the microphysics process, boundary layer process, and cumulus convection process, which are closely related to precipitation. Further, it aimed to compare the discrepancy among different parameterization schemes in the same physical process using multivariate analysis of the variance method and Tukey’s test. Furthermore, the impact of the differences in microphysics schemes on the precipitation simulation error was analyzed in detail. The results show that the microphysics scheme is the most significant for precipitation simulation and model prediction, and the interactions between different physical processes cannot be overlooked. On this basis, the optimal parameterization scheme combination, which is determined through the Taylor skill score, is selected as the WSM7 scheme for the microphysics process + the YSU scheme for the boundary layer process + the GF scheme for the cumulus convection process. From the perspective of hydrometeors and microphysics conversion processes in different microphysics schemes, hail plays a significant role in the simulation of extreme precipitation. The change in raindrops mixing ratio may be attributed to the melting term of ice particles. The evaporation of rain affects the intensity of the cold pool through latent heat absorption, and it then affects the subsequent precipitation propagation. Furthermore, it directly affects the distribution of heavy precipitation.

     

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