Abstract:
Understanding the classification of the subseasonal meridional march of summer precipitation anomalies in eastern China is crucial for analyzing the dynamics of East Asian summer monsoon and improving rainband predictions. However, previous studies on precipitation classification primarily focused on subseasonal propagation, leaving the broader regularity and classification of these anomalies over eastern China unclear. Therefore, this study addresses the gap by categorizing the subseasonal meridional movement of summer (24–50 pentad) precipitation anomalies into three types using the
K-means clustering method: (1) The northward propagating type in which precipitation anomalies move northward from South China; (2) the oscillating type in which precipitation anomalies remain stable, with opposing phases north and south of 30°N; (3) the southward retreating type in which the precipitation anomalies move southward from the Huang–Huai River Basin. Across all three types, anomalous convection over the tropical Indian Ocean propagates northeastward. However, whether these anomalies influence eastern China largely depends on the speed and intensity of the mid-latitude disturbances over East Asia. When the westerly jet over eastern China is strong and wide, mid-latitude disturbances move eastward quickly. However, if the wave activity flux transported to East Asia is inactive, these disturbances struggle to develop. Under such conditions, tropical anomalous convection often propagates northward, leading to the formation of the northward propagating type. If the westerly jet over eastern China is weak but the wave activity flux propagated to East Asia is active, mid-latitude disturbances move slowly and remain stable. These disturbances can strengthen and develop further through active upstream wave energy transport, which blocks the northward propagation of tropical anomalous convection, forming the oscillating type. If both the westerly jet and wave activity flux are strong, mid-latitude disturbances intensify and propagate southward, formulating the southward retreating type.