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中国东部夏季季节内降水异常的经向移动分类及可能机理

Classification of the Subseasonal Meridional March of Summer Precipitation Anomalies over Eastern China and Possible Mechanisms

  • 摘要: 理解中国东部夏季季节内降水异常的经向移动分类对理解东亚季风动力过程和雨带预测有重要影响。目前已有研究多针对于季节内尺度上局地降水的分类和移动特征,而对于中国东部夏季降水异常在季节内尺度的移动规律及分类尚不清晰。因此本文利用K均值聚类方法将中国东部地区夏季(24~50候)季节内降水异常的经向移动分为三类:(1)降水异常由华南向北移动的北传型;(2)降水异常稳定维持并以30°N为界呈南北反相的振荡型;(3)降水异常由黄淮流域向南移动的南退型。进一步分析表明,三类降水异常移动型都可观测到热带印度洋地区的对流异常向东北传播,但其降水异常是否能传播至中国东部取决于东亚中纬度扰动的移动速度和强度。当中国东部西风急流较强较宽,使得中纬度扰动能快速东移,而传播至东亚的波活动通量不活跃,导致扰动难以发展,使得热带对流异常更易向北传播,有利于第一类北传型降水异常的发生;当中国东部西风急流偏弱,且传播至东亚的波活动通量活跃时,中纬度扰动移动较慢较为稳定,并可获得来自上游的波能量发展增强,从而阻挡热带对流异常的北传,有利于形成第二类振荡型降水异常模态;当中国东部西风急流较强较宽,但传播至东亚的波活动通量较活跃时,中纬度扰动加强并倾向南压,形成第三类南退型降水异常。

     

    Abstract: Understanding the classification of the subseasonal meridional march of summer precipitation anomalies in eastern China is crucial for analyzing the dynamics of East Asian summer monsoon and improving rainband predictions. However, previous studies on precipitation classification primarily focused on subseasonal propagation, leaving the broader regularity and classification of these anomalies over eastern China unclear. Therefore, this study addresses the gap by categorizing the subseasonal meridional movement of summer (24–50 pentad) precipitation anomalies into three types using the K-means clustering method: (1) The northward propagating type in which precipitation anomalies move northward from South China; (2) the oscillating type in which precipitation anomalies remain stable, with opposing phases north and south of 30°N; (3) the southward retreating type in which the precipitation anomalies move southward from the Huang–Huai River Basin. Across all three types, anomalous convection over the tropical Indian Ocean propagates northeastward. However, whether these anomalies influence eastern China largely depends on the speed and intensity of the mid-latitude disturbances over East Asia. When the westerly jet over eastern China is strong and wide, mid-latitude disturbances move eastward quickly. However, if the wave activity flux transported to East Asia is inactive, these disturbances struggle to develop. Under such conditions, tropical anomalous convection often propagates northward, leading to the formation of the northward propagating type. If the westerly jet over eastern China is weak but the wave activity flux propagated to East Asia is active, mid-latitude disturbances move slowly and remain stable. These disturbances can strengthen and develop further through active upstream wave energy transport, which blocks the northward propagation of tropical anomalous convection, forming the oscillating type. If both the westerly jet and wave activity flux are strong, mid-latitude disturbances intensify and propagate southward, formulating the southward retreating type.

     

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