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巴伦支海地区秋季海冰偏少对西伯利亚地区反气旋活动的影响

Effect of Less Sea Ice in the Barents Sea in Autumn on Anticyclone Activity in Siberia

  • 摘要: 全球变暖背景下,北极地区大幅升温、海冰急剧退缩。以往研究揭示了秋季巴伦支海区域的海冰状况是后期冬季欧亚大陆气温异常的显著前兆因子,而西伯利亚冬季低层反气旋的活动与冷空气变化密切相关,但北极海冰对西伯利亚地区冬季低层反气旋/冷高压活动是否以及如何产生影响仍有待进一步研究。本文利用欧洲中期天气预报中心再分析资料ERA5及海冰资料,研究了巴伦支海地区秋季海冰偏少对西伯利亚地区反气旋活动的影响及途径。结果表明:(1)巴伦支海地区秋季海冰密集度的年际变化对西伯利亚地区冬季反气旋及其携带的冷空气质量作用明显,当秋季海冰较少时,反气旋活动增强,其携带冷空气增多。(2)秋季海冰面积指数减少将导致后期更多海洋热量向大气传递,从而降低冬季极区与中纬度间的经向温度梯度,进而减弱中纬度西风,造成欧亚大陆反气旋活动增强。(3)利用大气环流模式CAM6,设计了巴伦支海区域海冰变化的敏感性试验,其结果也显示在海冰偏少条件下,除贝加尔湖以东和中国东北部地区,欧亚大陆大部分地区均呈现反气旋频次增多、反气旋中心气压增强。其中,海冰减少引起了位涡经向梯度的显著降低,从而导致东欧平原、乌拉尔山以及东亚地区的阻塞发生频率增大,使得欧亚大陆中纬度大部分区域反气旋活动增强,气温下降。

     

    Abstract: Global warming has led to significant warming in the Arctic region, resulting in a drastic retreat of sea ice. Previous studies have revealed that the sea ice condition in the Barents Sea region in autumn is a crucial precursor factor for temperature anomalies in Eurasia in late winter. Although the activity of the low-level anticyclone in Siberia during winter is closely related to changes in cold air, whether and how Arctic sea ice affects the activity of the low-level anticyclone or cold high-pressure systems in winter in Siberia remains unclear. In this study, the effects and pathways of low sea ice in autumn in the Barents Sea region on anticyclone activities in Siberia were investigated using ERA5 reanalysis data and sea ice data. The results revealed the following: (1) Interannual variations in autumn sea ice density in the Barents Sea region affect the winter anticyclones and the quality of the cold air they carry in the Siberian region. The anticyclone activity is enhanced, and the cold air it carries increases when there is a reduction in sea ice in the autumn. (2) An exponential reduction in sea ice area in autumn leads to enhanced ocean heat transfer to the atmosphere later in the season, thus reducing the meridional temperature gradient between the polar regions and mid-latitudes in winter. This, in turn, weakens the mid-latitude westerly winds, resulting in increased anticyclonic activity in Eurasia. (3) The authors designed a sensitivity test for sea ice changes in the Barents Sea region using the atmospheric circulation model CAM6. The test results reproduced that under conditions of low sea ice, most of the Eurasian continent, except for the area to the east of Lake Baikal and northeastern China, experienced an increase in anticyclone frequency and enhancement of the central pressure of the anticyclone. In particular, the reduction in sea ice caused a significant decrease in the meridional gradient of the vortex, leading to an increase in the frequency of blockages in the East European Plain, the Ural Mountains, and East Asia, resulting in enhanced anticyclone activity and reduced temperature in most of the mid-latitude regions of the Eurasian continent.

     

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