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北大西洋涛动与青藏高原东部夏季降水的不稳定关系

The Nonstationary Relationship between NAO and Summer Precipitation in the Eastern Qinghai–Xizang Plateau

  • 摘要: 青藏高原降水因其在区域水循环中的重要作用备受关注。基于96个气象站数据,分析了1961~2017年青藏高原东部夏季(6~8月)降水主模态与北大西洋涛动(North Atlantic Oscillation,简称NAO)的关系,解释了两者关系的演变特征及可能机制。结果表明,NAO主导着青藏高原东部夏季降水主模态,但两者的关系存在年代际变化,前期(1961~1993)NAO导致青藏高原东部夏季降水主模态呈南北偶极型,后期(2002~2017年)则为区域一致型。NAO能够在青藏高原高层激发具有准垂直正压结构的位势高度异常,在其低层形成相应的环流异常,进而影响该区域水汽异常。前(后)期,NAO引起该环流异常的西边缘位于青藏高原的东北部(西北部),有利于形成青藏高原东部夏季降水的南北偶极型(区域一致型)。青藏高原东部夏季降水主模态的转变,导致了对于整个研究时段青藏高原东部夏季降水主模态时间系数与NAO相关关系在1998年出现突变。鉴于NAO与青藏高原东部夏季降水的不稳定关系,在研究NAO对区域气候影响时,需要考虑年代际背景信号,以提高预测水平及模式模拟能力。

     

    Abstract: Precipitation on the Qinghai–Xizang Plateau (TP) has garnered attention owing to its critical role in the regional water cycle. An analysis of data from 96 meteorological stations from 1961 to 2017 on the eastern TP examines the relationship between the leading mode of summer (JJA) precipitation variability and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), along with the mechanisms behind their unstable relationship. The results show that the NAO significantly influences the leading mode of summer precipitation on the eastern TP, with interdecadal variations in their relationship. During the early period (1961–1993), the NAO induced a north-south dipole pattern, while in the later period (2002–2017), it led to a monopole pattern. The NAO can generate potential height anomalies with a quasi-barotropic structure in the upper layers over the TP, forming corresponding circulation anomalies in the lower layers, which in turn affect regional water vapor anomalies. During the early (later) period, the western edge of the NAO-related circulation anomalies was located in the northeastern (northwest) TP, facilitating the formation of precipitation anomalies in a north–south dipole pattern (monopole pattern) in the eastern TP. The shift in the leading modes of summer precipitation resulted in an abrupt change in the NAO-precipitation relationship in 1998. Given the nonstationary relationship between NAO and summer precipitation on the eastern TP, it is essential to consider the interdecadal background signal when studying the NAO’s impact on regional climate. This is crucial for improving prediction accuracy and model simulation capabilities.

     

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