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多波段双雷达反演风场在西南地区一次暴雨预报中的同化应用

Assimilation Application of Multiband Dual-Radar Retrieval Winds in the Forecast of a Rainstorm Event in Southwest China

  • 摘要: 利用我国西南地区18部S波段和C波段新一代天气雷达径向风资料,采用考虑标准大气折射影响的动态地球坐标系下双雷达三维风场反演技术,进行了S–S、C–C、C–S不同波段组合双雷达风场反演及组网拼图,并基于WRF4.2模式及WRFDA同化系统,对2017年7月6~7日我国西南地区一次强降水过程进行了云分辨尺度(2 km)数值模拟,探讨了8种不同水平分辨率的双雷达风场反演拼图资料三维变分同化对强降水预报的影响,结果发现:(1)考虑标准大气折射影响的动态地球坐标系下双雷达三维风场反演技术,对于我国西南地区不同波段组合双雷达风场反演具有良好的适用性。(2)对川东北—渝北强雨带而言,8种不同水平分辨率的风场同化试验均显著改进了控制试验预报该地区强雨带走向、落区、范围、强降水中心位置和强度,与实况极为接近,6~30 h模拟的24 h累积降水量空间相关系数和TS评分明显提高,空报率和漏报率明显降低,并且在≥25 mm、≥50 mm降水量级上改善更为明显。0.25°分辨率的风场同化试验效果最优,这与适当密度的风场资料同化后在背景风场基础上产生了适宜的分析增量场,使分析风场更加接近于实际风场,并导致模式积分中不断修正控制试验中的风场结构,致使模拟的涡旋、切变线、高空低槽、风向风速等流场结构更接近实况有关。(3)对于滇北—川南—黔西北强雨带而言,0.15°及更高分辨率的反演风场进行同化,对预报结果产生了明显负影响,该影响随风场资料分辨率增加而愈加显著。这与过密的反演风场资料同化带来了资料相关性问题有关,导致虚假及过高的分析增量场,并最终影响模拟的风场结构及雨带位置。(4)不同水平分辨率风场同化对数值预报结果影响显著,整体而言,本文采用18 km /6 km /2 km三重嵌套,并在三重嵌套区域内均进行同化的情况下,0.2°是稀疏化方案的临界阈值,当反演风场资料的水平分辨率不高于该阈值时,往往会给预报结果带来正影响,其中0.25°水平分辨率是最佳的稀疏化方案。

     

    Abstract: Using radial wind data from 18 CINRAD (China New Generation Weather Radar)/S and CINRAD/C radars in southwest China, S–S, C–C, and C–S dual-radar wind fields were retrieved, and a mosaic was created using a three-dimensional dual-radar wind retrieving technique, which accounted for standard atmospheric refraction in a dynamic earth coordinate system. To study the impact of three-dimensional variational assimilation of dual-radar retrieved wind fields with different horizontal resolutions on a heavy rainfall forecast, eight cloud-resolving numerical experiments were performed. These experiments used the WRF4.2 model and the WRFDA assimilation system to simulate a rainstorm event in southwest China on 6–7 July 2017. The results are as follows. (1) The three-dimensional dual-radar wind retrieval technique, which accounts for standard atmospheric refraction in a dynamic earth coordinate system, is highly effective for retrieving wind data from different band radars in southwest China. (2) For the heavy rain band from northeast Sichuan to northern Chongqing, eight retrieval-wind assimilation experiments with different horizontal resolutions all significantly improved the forecast. These enhancements included better predictions of the direction, precipitation area, range, location, and intensity of the heavy rain band, making the results much closer to reality compared to the control experiment. The spatial correlation coefficient and TS score for 24-hour accumulated precipitation (valid at 6–30 hours) showed significant improvement, while both missed and false forecasting rates decreased. The greatest improvements were observed for rainfall amounts equal to or greater than 25 mm and 50 mm. The best results came from the wind-field assimilation experiment with a horizontal resolution of 0.25°. At this resolution, an appropriate analysis increment field was generated relative to the background wind field through the assimilation of well-resolved wind-field data. This led to an analysis wind field that closely aligned with actual conditions. Additionally, the model integration continuously corrected the wind-field structure from the control experiment, producing simulated features such as vortices, shear lines, high-altitude troughs, wind direction, and wind speed being closer to the observed conditions. (3) From the heavy rain band from northern Yunnan and southern Sichuan to northwestern Guizhou, the assimilation of retrieved winds with a resolution of 0.15° or higher had a significant negative impact on the prediction results. The negative impact became more significant as the resolution of retrieval wind increased. This issue stemmed from data correlation caused by the assimilation of overly dense retrieval winds. This resulted in excessively high and inaccurate analysis increment fields, which ultimately disrupted the simulated wind-field structure and misaligned the position of the rain band. (4) The assimilation of retrieval winds with different horizontal resolutions significantly affects numerical prediction results. Overall, this study identified a horizontal resolution of 0.2° as the critical threshold for the thinning scheme of retrieved winds under the condition of using a triply nested domain with resolutions of 18 km /6 km /2 km and conducting data assimilation across all domains. When the horizontal resolution of the retrieval wind does not exceed this threshold, it generally enhances prediction accuracy. Among these, a horizontal resolution of 0.25° proved to be the optimal thinning scheme.

     

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