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利用雷达数据开展对流降水临近预报的循环神经网络方法试验

Experiments of Convective Precipitation Nowcasting Based on a Recurrent Neural Network Method and Weather Radar Data

  • 摘要: 中尺度对流降水预报是天气预报的重点和难点之一,天气雷达探测的高时空分辨率降水数据是开展0~2 h临近预报的主要依据。由于传统雷达回波外推方法缺乏非线性映射能力和本地环境参量变化对系统的影响等局限性,所以本研究引入带记忆解耦功能的循环神经网络方法,采用ST-LSTM单元组成的PredRNN-v2深度学习技术,对局地性对流天气系统进行临近预报。利用2010~2014年的广州雷达体扫回波强度资料,构造模型训练数据集和测试数据集。选择Huber损失函数进行训练,不但收敛速度快、而且鲁棒性更强。一般认为,强回波对系统演变的影响更大。因此,本研究为强回波分配较大权重,增强其在拟合过程中的影响程度。对采用等权重损失函数的PredRNN-v2模型和采用不同权重Huber损失函数的PredRNN-v2模型进行测试集检验以及对流降水个例分析,结果表明,测试集中后者在较长的外推时效下,对强回波预测的临界成功指数、命中率更高,虚警率更低。两次个例分析表明,在较长的外推时效下,后者峰值信噪比PSNR和图像结构相似性SSIM更高;在2 h内的任意外推时效下,强回波偏差评分始终更接近于1。因此,在长预报时效以及对强回波预测效果上,采用带权重的Huber损失函数的PredRNN-v2模型更优,可以更好地模拟对流回波演变的非线性过程,并产生更合理、更准确地降水位置预报。

     

    Abstract: In weather forecasting, mesoscale convective precipitation nowcasting is both crucial and challenging. High-resolution spatiotemporal precipitation data from weather radars are essential for predicting weather within 0–2 hours. Traditional radar echo extrapolation methods face limitations due to the lack of nonlinear mapping ability and the influence of local environmental parameters on the weather system. This study utilizes a recurrent neural network—PredRNN-v2—which includes a memory decoupling function and spatiotemporal long-short term memory network, specifically for nowcasting local convective weather systems. The training and test datasets are constructed from radar volumetric scanning echo intensity data obtained from the Guangzhou radar from 2010 to 2014. The model is trained using the Huber loss function, which is selected for its fast convergence and robustness. Recognizing the significant role of strong echoes in weather evolution, the study gives greater weight to strong echoes during fitting. The performances of the PredRNN-v2 model with equal weight loss functions and that with different-weight Huber loss functions are demonstrated through test validations and case studies of convective precipitation. The results of test validations show that the PredRNN-v2 model with different-weight Huber loss functions achieves a higher critical success index, higher hit rate, and lower false alarm rate for long extrapolation durations. Further, case studies show that for this model with different-weight Huber loss functions, the peak signal-to-noise ratio and structural similarity are higher under long extrapolation durations, while strong echo bias remains closer to 1 across all extrapolation durations within 2 hours. The PredRNN-v2 model with different-weight Huber loss functions can better simulate the nonlinear evolution of convective echoes, providing more reasonable and accurate precipitation location forecasts.

     

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