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中国降水年景指数的改进及其预测因子研究

The Improvement of China Annual Precipitation status index and Its Predictive Factors

  • 摘要: 气候年景是一年气候的综合表征,可以反映某年内主要气候要素偏离气候平均值的程度。降水年景作为气候年景的一个重要组成部分,综合体现某年内降水偏离气候平均值的情况。本文利用观测资料和再分析资料评估了前人定义的降水年景指数,指出前人定义的降水年景指数在计算全国降水年景时,由于所有格点等权重的区域平均,有些年份因西部地区降水年景差导致的全国降水年景差,与公众认知并不相符。因此本文综合降水气候态和人口密度作为权重,改进了降水年景指数,并利用历史气候资料对改进的指数进行验证,结果表明基于改进后的降水年景指数挑选的好差年景年份与历史实况基本相符。此外,本文分析了好差年景年的特点和前兆信号,结果表明,好年景年的海温、850 hPa风场与气候态十分相似,差年景年海温、850 hPa风场与气候态的差异较大。根据降水距平百分率的区域平均值将差年景年分为旱年和涝年,发现旱年西北太平洋海温显著偏冷,中国中东部地区出现显著的偏北风异常,从而不利于降水发生;涝年西北太平洋、热带印度洋海温显著偏暖,中国南方地区出现显著的西南风异常,异常西南风带来充沛的水汽条件,从而有利于降水发生。前兆信号的结果表明次年降水年景可以利用前秋西印度洋海温距平绝对值进行预测,两者为显著的正相关关系,其原因可能是前秋热带中东太平洋的厄尔尼诺事件与春季、夏季印度洋海温一致模态的接力作用,导致菲律宾、中国南海上空异常反气旋的维持,从而在对流层低层的东亚沿岸地区出现显著的西南风异常,输送水汽,使得中国降水增加。此外,通过前秋海温验证了厄尔尼诺和拉尼娜对我国旱涝年影响的不对称性,旱年多小旱,涝年多大涝。本文的研究结果对理解和预测降水年景具有一定参考意义。

     

    Abstract: The annual climatic status is the comprehensive representation of the climate of a year, which can indicate the degree of deviation of the main climatic elements from the climatic normal. As an important part of the annual climatic status, the annual precipitation status comprehensively reflects the deviation of the precipitation from the climatic normal. Based on the observational data and reanalysis data, this study evaluates the index of annual precipitation status of predecessors. It is found that due to the regional average of all grid points with equal weights, the reason for some bad status years is that the contribution of the western region is relatively large, so the total effect is not satisfactory. Therefore, the climatology of precipitation and population density are considered as weights to improve the index of annual precipitation status, and we called this “improved index”. The historical climate data are used to verify the improved index, and the results show that the good and bad status years are well selected by the improved index. In addition, the characteristics and precursor signals of good and bad status years are analyzed. The results show that the sea surface temperature (SST) and 850 hPa wind field in good status years are very close to the climatology, but the bad status years are quite different from the climatology. According to the percentage of precipitation anomalies, we divide the bad status years into drought years and flood years. It is found that the SST in the Northwest Pacific is significantly colder in the drought years, and there is a significant northerly wind anomaly in the central and eastern China. However, in the flood years, the SST in the northwestern Pacific Ocean and the tropical Indian Ocean is significantly warmer, and there is a significant southwesterly wind anomaly in southern China. The results of the precursor signals show that the precipitation in the second year can be predicted based on the absolute value of the SST anomalies in the western Indian Ocean in the previous autumn. The mechanism may be the effect from the El Ni?o in the previous autumn to the IOBW in spring and summer, which is beneficial to the maintenance of anomalous anticyclones over the Philippines and the South China Sea, resulting in a significant southwesterly wind anomaly at 850 hPa, transporting water vapor, and leading to increased precipitation in China. In addition, the asymmetric effects of El Ni?o and La Ni?a on China are verified by the SST in the previous autumn, which is reflected in the asymmetry of drought and flood years. The results in this paper have certain reference significance for understanding and predicting the precipitation in China.

     

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