Abstract:
The annual climatic status is the comprehensive representation of the climate of a year, which can indicate the degree of deviation of the main climatic elements from the climatic normal. As an important part of the annual climatic status, the annual precipitation status comprehensively reflects the deviation of the precipitation from the climatic normal. Based on the observational data and reanalysis data, this study evaluates the index of annual precipitation status of predecessors. It is found that due to the regional average of all grid points with equal weights, the reason for some bad status years is that the contribution of the western region is relatively large, so the total effect is not satisfactory. Therefore, the climatology of precipitation and population density are considered as weights to improve the index of annual precipitation status, and we called this “improved index”. The historical climate data are used to verify the improved index, and the results show that the good and bad status years are well selected by the improved index. In addition, the characteristics and precursor signals of good and bad status years are analyzed. The results show that the sea surface temperature (SST) and 850 hPa wind field in good status years are very close to the climatology, but the bad status years are quite different from the climatology. According to the percentage of precipitation anomalies, we divide the bad status years into drought years and flood years. It is found that the SST in the Northwest Pacific is significantly colder in the drought years, and there is a significant northerly wind anomaly in the central and eastern China. However, in the flood years, the SST in the northwestern Pacific Ocean and the tropical Indian Ocean is significantly warmer, and there is a significant southwesterly wind anomaly in southern China. The results of the precursor signals show that the precipitation in the second year can be predicted based on the absolute value of the SST anomalies in the western Indian Ocean in the previous autumn. The mechanism may be the effect from the El Ni?o in the previous autumn to the IOBW in spring and summer, which is beneficial to the maintenance of anomalous anticyclones over the Philippines and the South China Sea, resulting in a significant southwesterly wind anomaly at 850 hPa, transporting water vapor, and leading to increased precipitation in China. In addition, the asymmetric effects of El Ni?o and La Ni?a on China are verified by the SST in the previous autumn, which is reflected in the asymmetry of drought and flood years. The results in this paper have certain reference significance for understanding and predicting the precipitation in China.