Abstract:
The annual climatic status is a comprehensive representation of the climate throughout the year. It indicates the degree of deviation of the main climatic elements from the climatic normal. The annual precipitation status, which is an important part of the annual climatic status, comprehensively reflects the deviation of the precipitation from the climatic normal. Based on the observational and reanalysis data, this study evaluates the index of annual precipitation status of predecessors. It is observed that due to the regional average of all grid points with equal weights, bad status years may result from the large contribution of the western region, which leads to an unsatisfactory effect. Therefore, the climatology of precipitation and population density are considered as weights to improve the index of annual precipitation status, and we refer to this as the “improved index”. The historical climate data are used to verify the improved index, and the results show that the good and bad status years are well selected by the improved index. Moreover, the characteristics and precursor signals of good and bad status years have been analyzed in detail. The results show that the sea surface temperature (SST) and 850 hPa wind field in good status years are considerably close to the climatology, but the bad status years are quite different from the climatology. According to the percentage of precipitation anomalies, we divide the bad status years into drought and flood years. It is found that the SST in the Northwest Pacific is significantly colder in the drought years, and there is a significant northerly wind anomaly in central and eastern China. However, in the flood years, the SST in the northwestern Pacific Ocean and the tropical Indian Ocean is significantly warmer. Further, there is a significant southwesterly wind anomaly in southern China. The results of the precursor signals show that the precipitation in the second year can be predicted according to the absolute value of the SST anomalies in the western Indian Ocean in the previous autumn. The mechanism may be attributed to the El Niño in the previous autumn to the Indian Ocean basin mode (IOBM) in spring and summer, which helps maintain anomalous anticyclones over the Philippines and the South China Sea, resulting in a significant southwesterly wind anomaly at 850 hPa, transportation of water vapor, and increased precipitation in China. Furthermore, the asymmetric effects of El Niño and La Niña on China are verified through the SST in the previous autumn, which is reflected in the asymmetry of drought and flood years. The results of this study have certain reference significance for understanding and predicting the precipitation in China.