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不同尺度初始误差对2021年台风烟花路径和强度模拟预报的影响

The Impacts of Different Scale Initial Errors on the Track and Intensity Simulated Forecasts of Typhoon In-fa in 2021

  • 摘要: 本文以2021年台风烟花为例,考察了不同尺度初始误差对台风路径和强度预报的影响。分别由NCEP提供的FNL再分析资料和由ECMWF提供的ERA5资料驱动WRF模式,对烟花进行长时间(14 d)、高分辨率(3 km)的模拟,产生对照试验CTL_F和CTL_E。对比分析CTL_F和CTL_E的模拟结果,并与最佳路径进行比较,将与最佳路径较为接近的模拟结果作为真值,将另一模拟结果作为有误差的预报。将二者的初始场作差,并进行尺度分解,以200 km, 2000 km为界限,分解成小尺度、中尺度和大尺度3种误差,分别将这3种尺度的误差叠加到真值的初始场上,再分别进行模拟预报,考察不同尺度的误差对台风烟花模拟预报的影响程度,并分析各种尺度误差对预报误差的相对贡献。结果表明,不论是强度预报,还是路径预报,在前10 d的预报中,中尺度误差起到了决定性作用。而在后4 d的预报中,大尺度和小尺度误差的贡献逐渐凸显,三种尺度误差的效果相当。此外,中尺度误差在前期使得台风路径偏东,强度偏强,而大尺度和小尺度误差使得台风路径偏西,强度偏弱。分析原因显示,初始时刻总误差场的信息主要体现在中尺度误差上,因此中尺度误差在前期的作用最为显著。中尺度误差略微加快了台风增强的速度,显著放缓了台风衰减的速度,而大尺度和小尺度误差略微放缓了台风增强的速度,而明显加快了台风衰减的速度。此外,叠加中尺度误差场后台风具有更强的初始强度,偏东的路径又使得其登陆时间较晚,综上,中尺度误差使得台风强度偏强。而大尺度和小尺度误差由于使得台风路径偏西,较早登陆,因此使得台风强度总体偏弱。

     

    Abstract: This study examines the typhoon In-fa in 2021 to investigate the impact of initial errors at different scales on the forecast of tropical cyclone track and intensity. The WRF model was driven separately by the FNL (Final Reanalysis Data) from NCEP and the ERA5 (the fifth major global reanalysis data) from ECMWF to conduct long-term (14 days) and high-resolution (3 km) simulations of typhoon In-Fa. These two simulations generated the control experiments CTL_F and CTL_E, respectively. The simulation results of experiments CTL_F and CTL_E were then compared against the best track, with the one closer to the best track regarded as the true value and the other as the forecast with errors. The differences of the initial fields of CTL_F and CTL_E was decomposed into small scale (<200 km), mesoscale (200~2000 km), and large scale (>2000 km) field. By superimposing these errors with three scales onto the true initial field and comparing the following simulations, the study examines the impact of errors at different scales on the simulated forecast of tropical cyclones, and analyzes the relative contributions of each scale of error to the forecasts. The results indicate that mesoscale errors have the decisive impact on forecasts during the first 10 days, both in terms of track and intensity. Over the subsequent 4 days, the contributions from large-scale and small-scale errors became more significant, with the effects of the three scale errors becoming comparable. In addition, mesoscale errors in the early stage shifted the typhoon track eastward and intensified its strength, while large and small-scale errors caused the typhoon track to shift westward and weakened the typhoon. Analysis reveals that the majority of error information is reflected in mesoscale error, making its role particularly significant in the early stages. Mesoscale errors slightly accelerate the speed of typhoon intensification and significantly slow down the speed of typhoon attenuation, while large-scale and small-scale errors slightly slow down the speed of typhoon intensification and significantly accelerate the speed of typhoon attenuation. Furthermore, the superimposed mesoscale error enhances the initial strength of the cyclone, resulting in an eastward track and later landfall. Therefore, mesoscale error leads to a stronger typhoon intensity. Conversely, large- and small-scale errors drive the track westward, causing an earlier landfall and reducing the typhoon’s overall strength.

     

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