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1982~2016年高温干旱对中国极端植被生产力损失的影响

Impacts of high temperature and drought on extreme vegetation productivity losses in China from 1982 to 2016

  • 摘要: 研究高温干旱对极端植被生产力的影响有助于深入认识生态系统极端事件,进而更有效地应对气候变化以减轻高温干旱对农业生产和社会经济的负面影响。本研究基于五套总初级生产力(Gross Primary Productivity, GPP)资料、温度和土壤观测资料,从平均气候态和长期趋势角度研究了高温干旱事件对1982~2016年中国地区极端GPP损失的贡献。从平均气候态来看,中国地区区域平均极端GPP损失为-15.7 gC m-2 yr-1,高温和干旱的发生频率和贡献相当,干旱、高温和热旱事件对总GPP损失贡献分别为45%、41%和23%。从长期趋势来看,1982~2016年中国55%以上的地区极端GPP损失呈现增加趋势,中国区域平均增加了-2.46 gC m-2 35yr-1。高温、干旱和热旱事件频率的增加均显著贡献于该趋势,其中干旱发生频率的贡献最大(-2.47 gC m-2 35yr-1),导致超过中国一半(61%)的地区呈现增加趋势。从区域分布特征来看,1982~2016年中国北方和中部地区极端GPP损失增幅最强且最显著,是受高温干旱影响的热点区域。本研究从极端GPP损失的变化特征出发,量化了近几十年中国地区高温干旱事件频率变化的贡献,指出高温干旱影响中国陆地生态系统碳汇功能的热点区域,有望为应对气候变化、保护生态环境以及社会经济可持续发展提供科学支持。

     

    Abstract: Investigating the impact of high temperature and drought on extreme vegetation productivity losses is crucial for a better understanding ecosystem extremes, facilitating better adaptation to climate change and mitigating their impacts on agricultural production and socio-economic systems. Based on five sets of Gross Primary Productivity (GPP) datasets, we study the contribution of high temperature and drought to extreme GPP losses in China from 1982 to 2016, from the perspective of climatology and long-term trends. In terms of climatology, the extreme GPP losses area-averaged in China is -15.7 gC m-2 yr-1. The frequency and contributions of high temperature and drought are comparable, with drought, high temperature, and combined high-temperature and drought events contributing 45%, 41%, and 23%, respectively, to the total GPP losses. As for the long-term trends from 1982 to 2016, more than 55% of areas in China has experienced an increase in extreme GPP losses, with a regional mean of -2.46 gC m-2 35 yr-1. The increasing frequency of high-temperature, drought, and combined high-temperature and drought events all contribute to this trend significantly, with drought frequency making the largest contribution (-2.47 gC m-2 35yr-1), leading to an increasing trend in over half (61%) of the regions in China. From the perspective of regional distribution, the northern and central China experienced the most significant and pronounced increases in extreme GPP loss from 1982 to 2016. These areas are the hotspots affected by high-temperature and drought. This study quantifies the contribution of the variation in the frequency of high-temperature and drought events in China over the past few decades to extreme GPP loss. It identified the hotspots of terrestrial ecosystems in China where are greatly affected by increasing frequency of high-temperature and drought, thus providing scientific support for a better adaptation and migration to climate change, and sustainable socioeconomic development.

     

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