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浙北两次相似环流背景下的极端对流性暴雨对比分析

Analysis of Two Extreme Convective Rainfall Events Under a Similar Circulation Background in Northern Zhejiang

  • 摘要: 利用常规观测资料、S波段双偏振雷达资料、欧洲中期天气预报中心第五代再分析资料(ERA5,0.25°×0.25°)等,对比分析了2023年7月16日、22日浙江两次极端对流性暴雨过程的天气背景、环境条件、中尺度对流系统触发机制、雷达参量特征等,结果表明:(1)两次过程发生在500 hPa相似的大尺度环流背景下,西北太平洋副热带高压外围均有西风槽东移、南海或菲律宾以东的西太平洋存在台风或热带低压,且均由地面中尺度辐合线触发。(2)中低层环流背景及落区不同,过程1(2023年7月16日)发生在850 hPa冷性切变线中,暴雨中心位于副高边缘的嘉兴境内,雨带呈南北向分布。过程2(2023年7月22日)发生在850 hPa一致的西南气流中,暴雨中心位于副高西北侧边缘的杭州境内,雨带呈东西向分布。(3)热动力条件不同,过程1中925 hPa东南气流的持续增强,使暴雨区边界层暖湿平流输送增强,强降水导致的能量损耗得以及时补充,同时低层冷暖平流的同步增长并垂直叠加,大气层结不稳定性强;且东南气流的持续增强,造成暴雨区风速辐合,水平锋生作用强,同时中高层也有垂直锋生发展。过程2中边界层西南气流弱,导致暖湿平流输送及层结不稳定性也弱,强降水的能量损耗得不到及时补充,整层以垂直锋生为主。(4)中尺度对流系统及微物理特征不同,过程1前期由多个对流单体新生后北上合并成中β尺度的强降水云团造成,后期由中尺度降水云团“后向传播”和“列车效应”共同造成,降水粒子以浓度较高的小雨滴为主。过程2前期由多个新生对流单体的“列车效应”造成,降水以直径大、浓度小的粒子为主,后期由系统性的线状对流与前期局地生成发展的对流云团合并加强造成,降水以直径小、浓度高的粒子为主。

     

    Abstract: According to conventional observation data, dual-polarization radar data, and ERA5 (0.25°×0.25°) reanalysis data, the weather background, environmental conditions, triggering mechanisms of the mesoscale convective system and radar parameter characteristics of two extreme rainfall events in Zhejiang on July 16 and 22, 2023, are compared and analyzed. The results show the following: (1) Both processes occur under a similar 500-hPa circulation pattern, with a westerly trough moving eastward around the Subtropical High and a typhoon or tropical depression in the South China Sea or the Western Pacific east of the Philippines. Both events are triggered by a surface mesoscale convergence line. (2) The background characteristics of the middle-low levels and precipitation areas differ. Process 1 July 16, 2023, 1800 BJT (Beijing time) to 2400 BJT occurs under a cold shear at 850 hPa. The rainfall center is located in Jiaxing on the edge of the Subtropical High, and the rain belt extends in a north–south direction. In contrast, Process 2 (July 22, 2023, 1400 BJT to 2000 BJT) occurs under a consistent southwest airflow at 850 hPa, with the rainfall center located in Hangzhou on the northwest edge of the Subtropical High and the rain belt extending in an east–west direction. (3) The thermal and dynamic conditions differ. In Process 1, the continuous strengthening of the southeast airflow at 925 hPa enhances the transport of warm, moist advection in the boundary layer of the rainstorm area, and the energy loss caused by heavy rainfall is promptly replenished. Moreover, cold and warm advection increases synchronously and vertically, leading to highly unstable atmospheric stratification. In addition, the continuous strengthening of the southeast airflow causes wind speed convergence, strong horizontal frontogenesis, and vertical frontogenesis in the middle and upper levels. In Process 2, the southwest airflow in the boundary layer is weak, resulting in the weak transport of warm, moist advection and limited layer instability. The energy loss due to heavy precipitation cannot be replenished promptly, and the entire layer is mainly dominated by vertical frontogenesis. (4) The mesoscale convective systems and microphysical characteristics differ. In the early stage of Process 1, the system is formed by several convective cells that merge and move northward, creating β-scale heavy precipitation cloud clusters. In the later stage, the system is driven by the “backward propagation” and “train effect” of mesoscale precipitation clouds. Precipitation particles are mainly small raindrops in this process. In Process 2, the system is caused by the “train effect” of multiple newly formed convective cells, with precipitation mainly consisting of large particles and low concentrations in the early stage. In the later stage, the system results from the combination and strengthening of systematic linear convection and locally generated convective cloud clusters, with precipitation mainly consisting of particles with small diameters and high concentrations.

     

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