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百米级快速融合预报RISE系统研发及其北京冬奥会应用评估

Development of Rapid-refresh Integrated Seamless Ensemble system at hundred-meter resolution scale and its application evaluation in Beijing Winter Olympics

  • 摘要: 2022年北京第24届冬季奥林匹克运动会(简称北京冬奥会)对气象保障服务提出了“百米级、分钟级”的刚性需求,尤其是对平均风、阵风及温度、雨雪等的精细化精准预报。针对该需求,北京城市气象研究院研发了北京地区高时空分辨率快速融合无缝隙集成预报系统(Rapid-refresh Integrated Seamless Ensemble system,简称RISE/睿思),实现了百米尺度、高频更新的多源数据快速融合预报,在冬奥气象保障服务获得了全方位应用。本文首先总结了RISE系统的基本框架、核心算法和技术进展。该系统通过实时快速融合京津冀尤其是冬奥赛区加密自动站逐5分钟观测资料、天气雷达逐6分钟扫描资料及临近预报、中尺度数值预报、大涡模拟预报等多源数据,引入复杂地形降尺度、无缝隙融合技术、百米级偏差订正技术等,实现京津冀地区500米网格、冬奥山地赛区100米网格、逐10分钟更新循环的地面温、湿、风、阵风及降水、降水相态的精细化分析和未来0-24小时预报,以及冬奥六个室外核心场馆(群)67米分辨率、逐12小时更新的地面常规要素的未来0-10天预报。然后,基于长序列批量检验和若干典型天气个例,评估RISE产品在北京冬奥会测试及正式比赛期间的实时应用效果,给出当前北京及其周边复杂山地区域冬季天气的总体预报水平。最后,讨论了“百米级、分钟级”天气预报技术未来的发展方向和所面临的关键技术难点。研究成果可以为冬奥等重大活动气象保障决策提供精细、精准的客观预报支撑,也可以应用于日常天气预报预警服务以及能源、水文等交叉领域,具有重要的科学意义和业务应用价值。

     

    Abstract: The 24th Winter Olympic Games in 2022 (referred to as the Beijing Winter Olympic Games) has put forward the rigid demand of "100-meter and minute-updated" meteorological support services, especially for the forecast demand of refined and accurate wind, gust, temperature, rain and snow, etc. In order to achieve this goal, the Institute of Urban Meteorology has developed a high spatio-temporal resolution Rapid-refresh Integrated Seamless Ensemble (RISE) system, which provided fast fusion forecasts based on multi-source data with hundred-meter resolution scale and minute-level update frequency, and was applied during the Beijing Winter Olympic meteorological support service. This paper firstly summarizes the basic framework, core algorithms and technical progress of RISE system. It integrates multi-source observation data and model forecast products including the 5-min updated surface automatic weather stations, 6-min updated weather radars, nowcasting products, meso-scale numerical forecast products and high-resolution real-time large eddy simulation data, and further introduces complex terrain downscaling technology, seamless fusion technology, high-resolution deviation correction technology, etc. It can generate 10-min updated fine grid analysis and future 0-24h forecast products including surface temperature, humidity, wind, gust, precipitation and precipitation types with a horizontal resolution of 500-meter in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and 100-meter resolution in Winter Olympics mountainous region, and also provide 12-hour updated future 0-10d forecasts of conventional meteorological elements with 67-meter resolution in six outdoor Winter Olympic venues. Then, based on the long-term verification and several typical cases, this paper also evaluates the real-time application performance of RISE products during the Beijing Olympic test and race periods, and gives the current level of winter weather prediction over complex mountainous area in Beijing and its surroundings. Finally, the future development and key technical difficulties of "100-meter and minute-updated" weather forecasting technology are discussed. Results of this study can provide precise and accurate objective meteorological forecast support for major events such as the Winter Olympics, and can also be used in daily weather forecast and early warning services, as well as other interdisciplinary fields such as energy and hydrology, which has important scientific significance and application value.

     

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