Abstract:
The 24th Winter Olympic Games in 2022 (referred to as the Beijing Winter Olympic Games) has put forward the rigid demand of "100-meter and minute-updated" meteorological support services, especially for the forecast demand of refined and accurate wind, gust, temperature, rain and snow, etc. In order to achieve this goal, the Institute of Urban Meteorology has developed a high spatio-temporal resolution Rapid-refresh Integrated Seamless Ensemble (RISE) system, which provided fast fusion forecasts based on multi-source data with hundred-meter resolution scale and minute-level update frequency, and was applied during the Beijing Winter Olympic meteorological support service. This paper firstly summarizes the basic framework, core algorithms and technical progress of RISE system. It integrates multi-source observation data and model forecast products including the 5-min updated surface automatic weather stations, 6-min updated weather radars, nowcasting products, meso-scale numerical forecast products and high-resolution real-time large eddy simulation data, and further introduces complex terrain downscaling technology, seamless fusion technology, high-resolution deviation correction technology, etc. It can generate 10-min updated fine grid analysis and future 0-24h forecast products including surface temperature, humidity, wind, gust, precipitation and precipitation types with a horizontal resolution of 500-meter in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and 100-meter resolution in Winter Olympics mountainous region, and also provide 12-hour updated future 0-10d forecasts of conventional meteorological elements with 67-meter resolution in six outdoor Winter Olympic venues. Then, based on the long-term verification and several typical cases, this paper also evaluates the real-time application performance of RISE products during the Beijing Olympic test and race periods, and gives the current level of winter weather prediction over complex mountainous area in Beijing and its surroundings. Finally, the future development and key technical difficulties of "100-meter and minute-updated" weather forecasting technology are discussed. Results of this study can provide precise and accurate objective meteorological forecast support for major events such as the Winter Olympics, and can also be used in daily weather forecast and early warning services, as well as other interdisciplinary fields such as energy and hydrology, which has important scientific significance and application value.