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两类El Ni?o与长江中下游降水年际变化的协同演变

Synergistic Interannual Evolution of Two Types of El Ni?o and Precipitation over the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River

  • 摘要: 本文基于多窗谱分析—奇异值分解(MTM–SVD)方法对降水和海表面温度(SST)进行不同时间尺度信号的分离和时空重构,研究了年际时间尺度上与厄尔尼诺—南方涛动(ENSO)相关的热带太平洋SST强迫对长江中下游降水的影响及可能机制。结果表明,长江中下游地区降水和热带太平洋SST存在着准两年(2.4年)和准四年(3.7年)的协同变化周期,且这两个年际主导模态分别与El Ni?o的中太平洋(CP)型和东太平洋(EP)型有关。与两类El Ni?o事件相关的SST强迫会引发不同的东亚大气环流异常响应,均有利于长江中下游地区的降水偏多。在准两年周期上,CP El Ni?o成熟期会引发东亚-太平洋型大气遥相关;在准四年周期上,EP El Ni?o成熟期会产生经向偶极型分布的东亚大气活动中心。此外,两类El Ni?o事件成熟期均会激发西北太平洋异常反气旋。上述大气环流系统共同增强着南海向长江中下游地区的水汽输送,造成该地区降水在两类El Ni?o成熟期间偏多。对2002年中国降水事件的个例分析表明,准两年和准四年周期变率对同期长江中下游地区降水变化的相对贡献存在差异。准四年周期变率有利于2002年春季长江中下游降水的偏多,而准两年周期变率起到削弱作用;2002年秋季的情况与之相反。本研究结果有助于深化对热带太平洋SST多时间尺度强迫影响长江中下游降水年际变化机制的认识,提高长江中下游地区降水预测的准确性。

     

    Abstract: Based on the signal separating and reconstructing of the Multi Taper Method – Singular Value Decomposition (MTM-SVD) method, this study investigates the impacts of interannual SST forcing associated with the El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on precipitation over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin (MLYR), as well as possible underlying mechanisms. Our results show the MLYR precipitation is associated with the tropical Pacific SST at two distinct time periods, i.e., the quasi-biennial (2.4-year) and quasi-quadrennial (3.7-year) periods, which is related to the CP-type and EP-type El Ni?o, respectively. These two types of El Ni?o trigger different atmospheric circulation responses in the East Asia, both positively impacting the interannual variability in the precipitation over the MLYR. On the quasi-biennial period, the mature phase of CP-type El Ni?o leads to an East Asian-Pacific atmospheric teleconnection. On the quasi-quadrennial period, the mature phase of EP-type El Ni?o results in a meridional dipole-like distribution of atmospheric activity centers over East Asia. Additionally, both types of El Ni?o events trigger the western North Pacific anomalous anticyclone (WNPAC) during their mature phases. These atmospheric circulation systems collectively enhance the moisture transport from the South China Sea to the MLYR, thereby increasing local precipitation. Furthermore, our case analyses show that there is a difference in the relative contribution of the quasi-biennial and quasi-quadrennial periods to the MLYR precipitation variations in 2002. In the spring of 2002, the quasi-quadrennial period contributes to the increase in precipitation over the MLYR, while the quasi-biennial period weakens it. The opposite situation appears in the autumn of 2002. This study refines our understanding of how the multi-timescale forcing of the tropical Pacific SST affects the interannual variability of MLYR precipitation. Our conclusion can help to improve the accuracy of local precipitation forecasts in the MLYR.

     

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