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2021年秋季我国北方极端降水的可能成因分析

Analysis of the potential causes of extreme precipitation in northern China during the autumn of 2021

  • 摘要: 近年来极端降水频繁发生,给居民生活、城市内涝等造成了严重的影响,因此极端降水的预报及前兆因子的分析是十分重要的。本文分析了2021年9–10月发生在我国北方地区极端降水的时空特征,揭示了影响极端降水的环流背景及因子。结果表明,此次极端降水累计降水量超过220mm,为1961年以来最强的一次极端降水事件。我国秋季降水主要受ENSO影响,发展中的La Ni?a形成异常反气旋,增强了水汽输送。但ENSO的影响主要位于39°N以南,39°N以北地区主要与MJO异常活动相关。MJO在3–5位相异常活跃,为历史气候态的2–3倍,异常增加的季节内尺度上升运动造成水汽辐合,形成了本次极端降水。统计分析也表明,MJO在第4位相活跃时北部区域极端降水的发生概率将增加60%以上,这为北方极端降水的预报提供了有效思路。

     

    Abstract: In recent years, there has been an increase in extreme precipitation, leading to significant impacts on residents" lives and causing urban flooding. Therefore, it is important to forecast extreme precipitation and analyze the precursor factors that lead to it. In this paper, we analyze the spatiotemporal characteristics of extreme precipitation that occurred in September-October 2021 in the northern region of China and reveal the circulation background and factors affecting extreme precipitation. The results show that the extreme precipitation accumulated over 220 mm, the strongest extreme precipitation event since 1961. The autumn precipitation in China is mainly affected by ENSO, with the developing La Ni?a forming an anomalous anticyclone that enhances water vapor transport. However, the influence of ENSO is mainly located south of 39°N, and the area north of 39°N is mainly associated with the anomalous activity of the MJO. The MJO was anomalously active in phase 3-5, which was 2-3 times the historical climatological state, and the anomalously increased intraseasonal-scale upward motion caused the water vapor convergence, which resulted in the formation of the extreme precipitation. Statistical analyses also show that the probability of extreme precipitation in the northern region will increase by more than 60% when the MJO is active in phase 4, which provides an effective idea for forecasting extreme precipitation in the north.

     

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