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不同积云对流方案对长江中下游流域降水和气温模拟的性能评价

Performance evaluation of different cumulus convection schemes for simulating precipitation and air temperature in the middle and lower Yangtze River basin

  • 摘要: 以往开展的基于长江流域WRF模式的微物理过程方案参数化优选的研究,没有对长江中下游这一特定区域多个气象要素积云对流参数化方案进行优选。本研究在最优微物理过程、边界层等参数化方案的基础上,首次选用长江中下游流域为研究对象,针对降水、气温进行三种积云对流参数化方案Kain-Fritsch(KF)、Betts-Miller-Janjic(BMJ)及Grell-Freitas(GF)的优选,并同时从不同海拔、水汽来源两个角度对比分析三种方案产生差异的原因,从而针对不同天气形选择合适的参数化方案。结果表明:(1)选取的三种积云对流参数化方案在降水和气温模拟结果表现不同。KF方案在降水模拟中表现较好,日降水模拟相关系数为0.73-0.77;GF方案在气温模拟中表现优异,日均气温模拟相关系数为0.71-0.77。(2)三种方案在不同海拔高程的表现差异明显,KF和BMJ方案较好地展现了武陵山-大巴山一带降水与地形的对应关系。在经度剖面上,KF方案2015、2017年6月的降水模拟误差分别为5.96%、6.06%。GF方案则对地形抬升作用的描述过于强烈,导致剖面降雨量变化幅度较大。(3)三种方案模拟结果的水汽来源有所不同,KF方案显示印度洋季风带来充沛水汽,水成物含量少,云水混合比集中,更适合长江中下游流域的降水模拟;GF方案则显示南海暖湿气流较强,水成物含量多,云系发展旺盛,更适合强对流天气频发地区的降水模拟。(4)不同水汽来源对三种积云对流参数化方案模拟结果的精度影响不大。尽管2017年6月较2015年6月受到来自西太平洋的水汽影响更大,但降水模拟结果仍显示KF方案表现最佳。

     

    Abstract: Previous studies on the parameterization of microphysical process schemes based on the WRF model for the Yangtze River Basin have not optimized the cumulus convection parameterization schemes for multiple meteorological elements in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River in this specific region. In this study, on the basis of the optimal microphysical process and boundary layer parameterization schemes, the middle and lower Yangtze River Basin is selected for the first time as the research object, and three cumulus convection parameterization schemes, Kain-Fritsch (KF), Betts-Miller-Janjic (BMJ), and Grell-Freitas (GF), are selected for the precipitation and temperature, and at the same time from the perspective of We also compare and analyze the reasons for the differences between the three schemes from the perspectives of different altitudes and water vapor sources, so as to select the appropriate parameterization schemes for different weather patterns. The results show that: (1) the three selected cumulus convective parameterization schemes perform differently in precipitation and air temperature simulations: the KF scheme performs better in precipitation simulations, with the correlation coefficients of daily precipitation simulations ranging from 0.73 to 0.77, and the GF scheme performs better in air temperature simulations, with the correlation coefficients of daily temperature simulations ranging from 0.71 to 0.77. (2) the performances of the three schemes differ significantly at different elevations, with the KF and BMJ schemes performing better than the KF and BMJ schemes. The KF and BMJ schemes better show the correspondence between precipitation and topography along the Wuling-Dabashan Mountains. In the longitude profile, the simulation errors of precipitation in June 2015 and 2017 of the KF scheme are 5.96% and 6.06%, respectively, while the GF scheme describes the effect of topographic uplift too strongly, resulting in a larger variation of rainfall in the profile. (3) The sources of water vapor in the simulation results of the three schemes are different. The KF scheme shows that the Indian Ocean monsoon brings abundant water vapor, with less hydromorphic substances and concentrated cloud-water mixing ratios, which is more suitable for the simulation of precipitation in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, while the GF scheme shows that the South China Sea warm and humid airflow is stronger, with more hydromorphic substances and vigorous cloud development, which is more suitable for the simulation of precipitation in the areas of heavy convection frequent weather. (4) Different water vapor sources have little effect on the accuracy of the simulation results of the three cumulus convective parameterization schemes. Although June 2017 was more affected by water vapor from the Western Pacific than June 2015, the precipitation simulation results still show the best performance of the KF scheme.

     

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