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南海季风槽准双周振荡对广东夏季暴雨的影响

Influence of South China Sea Monsoon Trough Quasi-biweekly Oscillations on Rainstorms in Summer in Guangdong Province

  • 摘要: 利用1961~2017年NCEP/NCAR逐日再分析与广东逐日降水等资料,通过选取没有与锋系联系一起、由单一南海季风槽影响导致的广东暖区暴雨过程并进行分类,采用合成分析、小波分析、Lanczos滤波器等方法,研究了不同类型季风槽暴雨过程的时空分布特征及其与大气低频振荡的关系,重点揭示了(强)西南季风型季风槽暴雨过程在准双周振荡不同位相大气环流场的演变特征及低频信号的来源与机制。结果表明:(1)(强)西南季风型季风槽暴雨过程占总个例的54.1%,主要出现在广东沿海与内陆的三大暴雨中心(阳江—阳春—恩平、海丰—陆丰—汕尾、龙门—佛岗),其余三类季风槽暴雨过程(强)西南季风辐合型、东南季风扰动型、热带气旋远离/消散型主要出现在广东沿海的两大暴雨中心及珠江口两侧。(2)季风槽暴雨过程主要存在5~8天的准单周振荡、10~24天的准双周振荡,少数年份还存在32~65天振荡。(3)(强)西南季风型季风槽暴雨从间歇—开始—鼎盛—减弱期,低频信号不仅来源于从欧洲西部到东北亚具有准正压性、呈相间排列的“反气旋—气旋”的低频波列东南向传播,还来源于对流层中低层菲律宾东南的热带西太平洋低频气旋西北向传播。它们使南亚高压从孟加拉国向巴基斯坦移动,西太平洋副高逐渐加强西伸北抬,巴尔喀什湖—贝加尔湖—我国中东部地区由间歇期的低频反气旋环流或高压脊逐渐转为鼎盛期的低频气旋环流或高空槽控制。(4)当华南高层由低频反气旋环流东南侧的强东北风逐渐转为华北—江南低频气旋性环流底部的强偏西风与印度半岛—南海西北部低频反气旋外围的西北风控制,高空辐散逐渐增强并达到最强。中低层由低频反气旋环流或高压脊控制逐渐转受来自南海中北部—孟加拉湾低频反气旋北缘的强西南风控制,并受东北亚、日本及其以南西太平洋低频反气旋环流的阻挡,在我国西南—江南—华南上空形成强的低频气旋性环流与正涡度。广东处于来自低纬度季风环流圈与中纬度次级垂直环流圈上升运动的汇合区,来自对流层中低层偏南风异常与垂直上升运动及绝对涡度逐渐增强并达到最强。地面由弱均压场逐渐转为北部湾向北伸展加强的闭合低压控制,南海季风槽北抬并增强,使(强)西南季风型季风槽暴雨从无转为开始并达到鼎盛期。它们可为季风槽暴雨的中期—延伸期预报提供参考。

     

    Abstract: Using the NCEP/NCAR (National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research)daily reanalysis and Guangdong daily precipitation datasets from 1961 to 2017 and selecting and classifying the rainstorm processes in the warm sector in Guangdong only caused by South China Sea monsoon trough without the frontal system, the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of different types of monsoon trough rainstorm processes and their relationship with atmospheric low-frequency oscillations are investigated, focusing on revealing the atmospheric circulation field evolution characteristics in different phases of quasi-biweekly oscillations and the source and mechanism of the low-frequency signals of the monsoon trough rainstorm process of the (strong) southwest monsoon type and using the synthetic analysis, wavelet analysis, and Lanczos filtering methods. The results showed that (1) the monsoon trough rainstorm process of the (strong) southwest monsoon type accounted for 54.1% of the total cases, mainly occurring in the three major rainstorm centers (i.e., Yangjiang–Yangchun–Enping, Haifeng–Lufeng–Shanwei, and Longmen–Fogang) along the coast and inland of Guangdong. The other three types of monsoon trough rainstorm processes (i.e., (strong) southwest monsoon convergence type, southeast monsoon disturbance type, and tropical cyclone away/dissipation type) mainly occurred in the two major rainstorm centers along the coast of Guangdong and on both sides of the Pearl River Estuary. (2) The monsoon trough rainstorm process mainly exhibits quasi-weekly (5–8 days) and quasi-biweekly (10–24 days) oscillations but less than 32–65 days oscillations. (3) During the intermittent start–peak–weak period of the monsoon trough rainstorm process of the (strong) southwest monsoon type, the low-frequency signal not only originates from the southeastward propagation of the quasi-barotropic low-frequency wave train consisting of a series of anomalous anticyclones and cyclones from Western Europe to Northeast Asia but also originates from the northwestward propagation of low-frequency cyclones in the tropical western Pacific of southeast Philippines in the middle and lower layers of the troposphere, inducing the South Asian High to move westward from Bangladesh to Pakistan and gradually strengthening and extending the western Pacific subtropical high northwestward from Balkashi Lake to Baikal lake. Meanwhile, central and eastern China is controlled by low-frequency anticyclonic circulation or high-pressure ridge in intermittent periods gradually turning into the low-frequency cyclonic circulation or upper trough in the peak period. (4) In South China, the strength of the upper-air divergence gradually increases, as the strong northeasterly at the southeast side of the low-frequency anticyclonic circulation changes to the strong westerly from the bottom of low-frequency cyclonic circulation that controls North China and South of the Yangtze and the northwesterly from the periphery of the low-frequency anticyclone that controls the Indian Peninsula–Northwest South China Sea. The middle and lower layers are controlled by the low-frequency anticyclone circulation or high-pressure ridge gradually turning into the (strong) southwesterly, which comes from the north of the low-frequency anticyclone that controls the central and northern South China Sea and the Bay of Bengal. Meanwhile, the strong low-frequency cyclonic circulation and positive vorticity are formed over Southwest China, South of the Yangtze, and South China when the strong southwesterly is blocked by the low-frequency anticyclone circulation over Northeast Asia, Japan, and the southwestern Pacific. Guangdong is located in the confluence area of the ascending motion from the monsoon circulation circle at the low latitude, and the secondary vertical circulation circle at the middle latitude, and the strength of the southerly wind anomaly from the middle and lower layers of the troposphere and the ascending motion and absolute vorticity gradually increase. The sea-level pressure gradually changed from a weak uniform pressure field to a closed low pressure extending northward from the Beibu Gulf. The South China Sea monsoon trough is lifted northward and strengthens, making the monsoon trough rainstorm process of the (strong) southwest monsoon type shift from the intermittent period to the peak period. These phenomena are beneficial to medium-range and extended-range forecasts of monsoon trough rainstorm processes.

     

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