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SSP1-2.6“双碳”路径下不同土地利用变化对我国近地面气温的生物物理影响

Biogeophysical Impact of Different Land Use Changes on Near-Surface Air Temperature in China under the SSP1-2.6 “Double Carbon” Pathway

  • 摘要: 近百年来土地利用和土地覆盖变化主要通过生物地球化学和生物地球物理过程影响气候变化,但其对我国未来气温的生物物理影响存在不确定性。因此,我们利用6个第六次国际耦合模式比较计划的模式数据,预估了共享社会经济路径SSP1-2.6下“双碳”时期不同土地利用变化(即SSP3-7.0情景和SSP1-2.6情景的土地利用)对我国近地面气温的生物物理影响,并定量解析各因子。结果表明,(1)SSP1-2.6“双碳”时期两个情景的土地利用在我国的主要差异为森林覆盖在秦岭—淮河以南增加、以北减少,且在碳中和时期(−10%~10%)大于碳达峰时期(−8%~5%);我国西部森林覆盖差异小。(2)全国平均而言,该土地利用差异在碳达峰时期降温贡献为5%,大于碳中和时期(−1%)。(3)土地利用变化在不同区域影响温度变化的因子不同:我国东部北方地区碳达峰时期的降温贡献(−3.2%)到碳中和时期的增温贡献(0.4%),是土壤热通量、晴空长波辐射和感热通量的增温作用增强以及地表反照率和潜热通量降温作用增强的综合结果。中国东部南方地区在两个时期均为降温贡献(−4.1%和−1.8%),主要是云辐射效应的降温作用。中国西部地区在碳达峰时期的增温贡献(4.9%)到碳中和时期的降温贡献(−1.8%),主要是土壤热通量和晴空辐射增温作用转为降温作用。总体上,相比于SSP1-2.6情景,SSP3-7.0情景的土地利用在SSP1-2.6“双碳”时期对我国整体起降温作用,但存在区域差异。

     

    Abstract: Over the past century, land use and land cover changes (LULCC) have influenced climate patterns mainly through biogeochemical and biogeophysical processes. However, the biogeophysical effects of LULCC on future air temperature in China remain unknown. Therefore, this study utilizes data from six models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 to project the biogeophysical impacts of different LULCC scenarios from two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)–SSP3-7.0 and SSP1-2.6–on near-surface air temperature in China under the same emissions scenario (SSP1-2.6) during the “double carbon” period. The study further quantitatively analyzes the contributing factors. Results indicate that (1) the main LULCC between the two scenarios during the SSP1-2.6 “double carbon” period is forest cover: it increases in the south of the Qinling–Huaihe River region and decreases in the north, with greater differences during the carbon neutral period (−10% to 10%) than during the carbon peak period (−8% to 5%). Differences in the forest cover in western China are minimal. (2) On a national scale, its contribution to future warming during the carbon peak period is −5%, and it is greater than that during the carbon-neutral period (−1%). (3) This contribution exhibits regional disparities. In northern East China, there is a transition from a negative contribution during the carbon peak period (−3.2%) to a positive contribution during the carbon-neutral period (0.4%). This is attributed to the combined enhanced warming effects of ground heat fluxes, clear-sky longwave radiation, and sensible heat fluxes, as well as the enhanced cooling effects of surface albedo and latent heat fluxes. Southern East China exhibits negative contributions (−4.1% and −1.8%) throughout the “double carbon” period, mainly resulting from the cooling effects originating from cloud radiation. In western China, the positive contribution during the carbon peak period (4.9%) changes into a negative contribution during the carbon-neutral period (−1.8%), primarily due to the transition of warming effects from ground heat fluxes and clear-sky radiation to cooling effects. Overall, compared with the SSP1-2.6, the land use in the SSP3-7.0 generally exerts a cooling effect during the “double carbon” period under SSP1-2.6; however, regional disparities exist.

     

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