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FY-3D卫星MWHS II资料直接同化对北京7·31暴雨预报的影响

Influence of direct assimilation of FY-3D satellite MWHS II data on July 31 rainstorm forecast in Beijing

  • 摘要: 本研究以2023年北京7.31暴雨为例,深入探讨了FY-3D卫星MWHS II微波湿度计资料直接同化对极端降水预报的影响。通过设置同化前后的对比实验,并结合WRF数值预报模式,对同化效果进行了多尺度、多要素的系统分析。研究发现:MWHS II资料同化明显改善了极端降水的模拟效果,成功捕捉到了超过550毫米的降水极值中心,并更准确地模拟了降水的空间分布。研究还揭示了同化作用对多尺度系统的影响:同化显著改善了大尺度环境场,为极端降水事件创造了有利条件,使得关键区域的温度梯度增强,水汽分布得到优化(尤其是东部海域的水汽通道),气压场的南北梯度也同时增加,共同维持了稳定的利于降水的大尺度背景。另一方面,同化对对流系统的影响更为突出:北京区域垂直涡度结构被优化,中高层负涡度和低层正涡度的增强促进了上升运动;大气不稳定度增加(表现为低层相对湿度增大、中层减小,位温垂直梯度加大),为强对流的触发和维持提供了有利条件。同时,微物理过程得到改善:中高层雪和霰粒子形成增多,低层云水向雨水的转化加速,提高了整体降水效率。这些影响在模拟的前36小时内尤为明显,凸显了同化在降水初期和发展阶段的关键作用。

     

    Abstract: This study examines the impact of direct assimilation of FY-3D satellite MWHS II microwave humidity sounder data on the prediction of extreme rainfall, using the July 31, 2023, heavy rainstorm in Beijing as a case study. Comparative experiments were conducted before and after data assimilation, and the WRF numerical prediction model was applied to analyze the effects across multiple scales and variables. The results show that the assimilation of MWHS II data significantly improved the simulation of extreme rainfall. It successfully captured the maximum rainfall center, exceeding 550 mm, and provided a more accurate simulation of rainfall distribution. The study also highlights the effect of assimilation on large-scale systems. It improved the large-scale environmental field, creating conditions that favored the extreme rainfall event. Key improvements included a strengthened temperature gradient in critical areas, optimized water vapor distribution, especially over the eastern sea, and an increased north-south pressure gradient. Together, these factors maintained a stable large-scale background that supported precipitation. On a smaller scale, the impact on convective systems was even more noticeable. Over the Beijing area, the vertical vorticity structure was optimized, with enhanced negative vorticity in the mid-to-upper atmosphere and increased positive vorticity in the lower levels, which promoted upward motion. The atmosphere became more unstable, with increased relative humidity in the lower levels, decreased humidity in the mid-levels, and a steeper vertical temperature gradient. These factors contributed to the triggering and maintenance of strong convection. Additionally, the microphysical processes were improved. More snow and graupel particles formed in the mid-to-upper layers, and the conversion of cloud water to rainwater accelerated in the lower levels, enhancing the overall precipitation efficiency. These effects were most prominent during the first 36 hours of the simulation, emphasizing the critical role of data assimilation during the early and developing stages of precipitation.

     

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