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高空冷云影响下的2017年6月6日长治上空一次晴空颠簸的数值模拟研究

Numerical Simulation Study of a Clear-air Turbulence over Changzhi on 6 June 2017 under the Influence of Upper-level Cold Clouds

  • 摘要: 晴空颠簸是影响飞机安全运行和旅客旅行舒适度的重要恶劣天气之一。为了研究2017年6月6日02:10 UTC(世界协调时)发生在山西省长治市上空的一次强烈的晴空颠簸事件的产生机制。论文使用常规观测资料、NOAA-15和NOAA-18卫星辐射资料并通过天气学分析和中尺度WRF数值模式以及GSI同化系统同化等方法,对此次事件开展了数值模拟和机理研究。结果表明:该次飞机颠簸事件是一个典型的高空急流-锋区耦合系统导致的晴空颠簸,高空急流是导致晴空颠簸的主要因素之一。导致该次晴空颠簸事件发生的是大气一系列要素对冷空气入侵的响应。高空冷云(冷空气)发展南下是促进此次强颠簸事件发生的重要诱因。由于高空冷云的南下,使得长治上空温度经向梯度增加,而长治上空温度经向梯度增加,使得中纬度风切变增大,增大的垂直风切变,导致Ri数值变小,而较小的Ri值是产生K-H不稳定的必要条件,由于K-H不稳定导致了长治上空出现晴空颠簸。此外,中尺度WRF模式以及GSI同化系统能够较好地还原颠簸区附近的大气云场特征,表明文中的数值预报流程对于晴空湍流发展时的大气云场具备一定的预报能力。

     

    Abstract: Clear air turbulence (CAT) is one of the important severe weather conditions that affect the safe operation of aircraft and the travel comfort of passengers. To investigate the mechanism of a severe CAT event that occurred over Changzhi, Shanxi Province at 0210 UTC on 6 June 2017, the numerical simulation and mechanism study of this event were conducted by using conventional observation data, NOAA-15 and NOAA-18 satellite radiation data, and by meteorological analysis, mesoscale WRF numerical model and data assimilation by GSI assimilation system. The results show that the aircraft turbulence event is a typical CAT caused by the upper-level front-jet system, and the upper-level jet stream is one of the main factors causing the clear air turbulence. The response of a series of atmospheric elements to the cold air intrusion is the cause of the CAT event. The southward development of upper-level cold clouds (cold air) is an important incentive to promote the occurrence of this severe turbulence event. Due to the southward movement of upper-level cold clouds, the meridional gradient of temperature over Changzhi increases, while the meridional gradient of temperature over Changzhi increases, resulting in the increase of mid-latitude wind shear. The increased vertical wind shear results in the decrease of Ri value, and the low Ri value is the necessary condition for Kelvin-Helmholtz instability, which leads to CAT over Changzhi. In addition, the mesoscale WRF model and the GSI assimilation system can well reproduceSthe characteristics of the atmospheric cloud field near the turbulence area, indicating that the numerical prediction process in this paper has a certain ability to forecast atmospheric cloud field during the development of clear air turbulence.

     

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