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从季内演变过程认识青藏高原夏季东部气温的长期趋势特征

An Intraseasonal Evolution Perspective on the Long-term Trend of Summer Air Temperature over the Eastern Tibetan Plateau

  • 摘要: 夏季青藏高原(简称“高原”)气温存在先升温后降温的季内变化特征。因此研究季内气温的长期变化,有助于深化高原气温长期变化的认识。为此,本文基于JRA55和ERA5两套再分析资料,从气温的季内演变角度分析了东部夏季气温长期变暖趋势的成因及其大气内部热力学机理。结果表明,高原东部夏季平均气温的增温趋势主要与三个方面有关:(1)升温速率( )在6月中、下旬显著变快;(2)降温速率( )在8月中旬显著减缓;(3)升温阶段时长显著延长。热力学诊断结果表明,气候上起降温作用的经向温度平流呈现出长期减弱趋势,它可能是高原东部夏季气温出现增暖的重要原因。需指出的是,两套再分析资料在描述高原气温演变上基本取得了一致的结果,但在描述热力学收支方程各项的趋势上却存在一定的差异,其中JRA55资料似乎揭示出更为一致的诊断结果。

     

    Abstract: In summer, the air temperature on the Tibetan Plateau (referred to as the "Plateau") has the intraseasonal variation characterized by initial warming followed by cooling. Therefore, studying the long-term changes in intraseasonal air temperature will help to deepen the understanding of the long-term air temperature change on the Plateau. Based on the JRA55 and ERA5 reanalysis datasets, this paper analyzes the long-term warming trend of summer air temperatures in the eastern Tibetan plateau from the perspective of intraseasonal evolution, as well as its atmospheric thermodynamic mechanisms. The results show that the warming trend of the summer temperature in the eastern Tibetan plateau is mainly related to three factors: (1) the significantly accelerated warming rate in mid- and late June; (2) the significantly decelerated cooling rate in mid-August; (3) the significantly prolonged duration of the warming period. Thermodynamic diagnostic results indicate that the meridional temperature advection, which climatologically acts as a cooling role, shows a long-term weakening trend, which may be an important cause of the warming of summer temperatures in the eastern Tibetan plateau. It should be noted that while both reanalysis datasets generally reveal the consistent evolution of air temperature over the eastern Tibetan plateau, there are certain differences in descripting the thermodynamic budget equation, with the JRA55 dataset seemingly revealing better diagnostic results.

     

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