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华北地区一次积层混合云过程飞机播撒碘化银增雨的数值模拟研究

Numerical simulation study of silver iodide sown by aircraft to increase rainfall during a cumulonimbus mixed cloud process in north China

  • 摘要: 积层混合云由层状云和嵌入其中的对流云组成,具有较强的催化潜力,是人工增雨的主要目标云系。由于华北地区普遍存在的农业干旱和增加储水量等的需求,针对该地区降水云系开展人工增雨研究显得尤为重要。本文采用耦合了AgI播撒参数化方案的WRF模式,对2021年6月16日出现在山西北部的一次积层混合云降水过程进行了AgI播撒催化数值模拟试验,并将模拟结果与卫星和机载云物理观测数据进行了对比。在云顶温度和液水含量吻合较好的基础上,按照实际作业中的飞机播撒轨迹和播撒剂量模拟了此次催化降水过程。对模拟结果进行分析发现:催化作业使得降水增强,局部地区累计降水增量可达15-20mm,区域平均增雨率为9.6%;AgI的核化过程以凝华核化为主,其次是凝结冻结核化,浸润冻结核化最弱。播撒AgI直接导致了云中冰晶浓度增多,水汽消耗使得前期雪和霰的产生和增长过程受到抑制,随着冰晶向雪转化和雪碰并云滴形成霰的过程增强,雪、霰粒子的总量增多,更多的雪、霰降落至零度层以下,融化形成大雨滴,从而增强了云雨碰并过程,最终导致地面降水增加。对播撒影响微物理过程进行量化分析发现,雪和霰融化过程较自然云增强了27.26%和20.53%,是播撒影响降水增加的主要微物理过程。这些结果揭示并量化了播撒影响降水机制和云微物理结构,有助于深入认识人工催化混合云增雨过程的物理机制,对北方地区人工影响冷云天气业务具有一定参考意义。

     

    Abstract: Stratiform clouds with embedded convection (referred to as “SEC” hereinafter), consisting of stratiform clouds and the convective clouds embedded within them, exhibit strong catalytic potential and are main targets for artificial rain enhancement. Due to the widespread agricultural drought in North China and the pressing need to increase water storage, conducting research on artificial rain enhancement for precipitation cloud systems in this region is particularly important.This study utilized the WRF model, coupled with an AgI seeding parameterization scheme, to perform numerical simulation experiments on AgI seeding during a precipitation event involving SEC that occurred in northern Shanxi on June 16, 2021. The simulation results were compared with satellite and airborne cloud physics observation data. With a good agreement in cloud top temperature and liquid water content, the catalytic precipitation process was simulated according to the actual seeding trajectory and dosage. Analysis of the simulation results indicates that the seeding operation significantly enhanced precipitation, with cumulative precipitation increases in local areas reaching 15-20 mm and a regional average rainfall enhancement rate of 9.6%. The nucleation process of AgI was primarily dominated by deposition nucleation, followed by condensation freezing nucleation, with immersion freezing nucleation being the weakest. Seeding AgI directly led to an increase in the concentration of ice crystals in the cloud, and the consumption of water vapor inhibited the production and growth of snow and graupel in the early stage. With the conversion of ice crystals to snow and the process of snow colliding with cloud droplets to form graupel, the total amount of snow and graupel particles increased. More snow and graupel fell below the zero-temperature level, melting into large raindrops, thus enhancing the cloud-rain collision process and ultimately leading to increased surface precipitation. Quantitative analysis of the microphysical processes affected by seeding shows that snow and graupel melting processes are enhanced by 27.26% and 20.53% compared to natural clouds, which are the main microphysical processes affected by seeding that affects the increase in precipitation. These results reveal and quantify the mechanism of seeding-influenced precipitation and cloud microphysical structure, which is helpful to understand the physical mechanism of artificial catalytic mixed cloud precipitation enhancement process, and providing valuable references for artificial influence on cold cloud weather operation in northern China.

     

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