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基于并行计算的正交条件非线性最优扰动在正压准地转模式集合预报中的应用

The application of orthogonal conditional nonlinear optimal perturbations based on parallel computing for ensemble forecasting in barotropic quasi-geostrophic model

  • 摘要: 正交条件非线性最优扰动(Orthogonal conditional nonlinear optimal perturbations,O-CNOPs)是一种重要的集合预报初始扰动方法,然而该扰动传统的顺序优化算法(S-CNOPs)计算代价高昂。随后,高效并行计算O-CNOPs的算法(P-CNOPs)被提出,但该算法的初始实现基于简单的LORENZ-96理论模型,而本研究将采用更复杂的二维正压准地转模式,研究P-CNOPs的可靠性和高效性,并从动力学和代数学两方面证明P-CNOPs在理论上的合理性,数值试验表明,P-CNOPs提供了与S-CNOPs集合预报相当的预报技巧,但前者计算效率显著高于后者,大大节省了计算资源。因此,P-CNOPs是计算复杂模式O-CNOPs的潜在高效算法,可望未来广泛应用于实际的数值天气预报模式。

     

    Abstract: Orthogonal conditional nonlinear optimal perturbations (O-CNOPs) is an important method for generating initial perturbations in ensemble forecasting. However, the traditional sequential optimization algorithm (S-CNOPs) for calculating O-CNOPs is computationally expensive. Subsequently, an efficient parallel algorithm for computing O-CNOPs (P-CNOPs) was proposed, but the initial implementation of this algorithm was based on the simple LORENZ-96 theoretical model. In this study, a more complex two-dimensional barotropic quasi-geostrophic model will be adopted to investigate the reliability and efficiency of P-CNOPs. The theoretical rationality of P-CNOPs will be demonstrated from both dynamical and algebraic perspectives. Numerical experiments show that P-CNOPs provide equivalent forecast skill to S-CNOPs ensemble forecasting, but the former has significantly higher computational efficiency than the latter, resulting in significant savings in computational resources. Therefore, P-CNOPs is a potentially efficient algorithm for computing O-CNOPs in complex models, and it is expected to be widely used in practical numerical weather prediction models in the future.

     

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