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江西南昌“3.31”极端大风成因分析

Analysis on the Causes of the Extreme Winds on March 31, 2024, in Nanchang, Jiangxi Province

  • 摘要: 2024年3月31日凌晨,江西南昌出现极端对流性强风天气,发生某高楼三位人员坠亡事件。本研究基于南昌SA型双偏振多普勒天气雷达和地面观测,分析了高楼人员坠亡地(即事发楼栋)附近的风暴精细结构。结果显示,在事发时段,波型线状回波中段的弓形回波北端出现了书挡涡旋(bookend vortex),尺度和强度(即垂直涡度)与强中气旋相当。书挡涡旋从事发楼栋上空经过,内部可进一步识别出尺度更小的龙卷涡旋特征(Tornado Vortex Signature,简称TVS)和龙卷残片特征(Tornado Debris Signature,TDS),TVS径向速度差超过40 m·s-1。基于TVS和TDS分析所得疑似龙卷路径进行了灾情调查,结果显示多处具有龙卷灾损特征,包括气旋性旋转的强风、辐合风和树剥皮等,且有石桥被完全吹倒。综上,可以确定事发楼栋附近出现了EF2级左右的龙卷,高楼人员坠亡极有可能是由龙卷引发的。本次过程特殊之处在于,龙卷相关涡旋包括书挡涡旋及其内部镶嵌的位于阵风锋前沿的小涡旋,二者几乎同时出现和增强。基于观测的分析表明,龙卷相关涡旋主要由水平涡度扭转形成,而水平涡度与未及地后侧入流急流下方的低层强垂直切变和阵风锋相关的斜压涡度有关。

     

    Abstract: Extreme winds disaster occurred in Nanchang, Jiangxi Province in early morning on March 31, 2024, which is responsible for the fall of three residents from a high building. Based on SA dual-polarization Doppler weather radar observations from Nanchang and surface observations, this study analyzed the fine structure of the severe storm near the accident building. The results revealed that a bookend vortex was embedded in the northern end of the bow echo within a quasi-linear convective system around the time of the accident, with its horizontal scale and vertical vorticity comparable to that of a strong mesocyclone. Tornado vortex signatures (TVS) with tornado debris signatures (TDS) were identified in the center of the bookend vortex which passed over the accident building. The rotational velocity of the TVS exceeded 40 m·s-1. Damage surveys conducted along the tornado path identified by TVS and TDS revealed multiple tornadic damages, including strong cyclonic rotational winds, localized convergent rotational winds, debarked trees and complete collapse of stone bridges. This indicated that an EF2 tornado occurred very close to the accident building, most likely responsible for the fatal fall. It is noteworthy that the tornado-related vortices include a bookend vortex and several leading-edge misocyclones embedded within it, which emerged and intensified almost simultaneously in this event. The observational study on the formation mechanisms indicated that those tornado-related vortices resulted from the tilting of the horizontal vorticity. The horizontal vorticity is associated with the strong low-level vertical shear of the elevated rear-inflow jet and the baroclinic vorticity related to the gust front.

     

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