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基于位涡环流理论的CAS FGOALS-f3-L对东亚夏季风年际变率第二模态模拟能力评估

Evaluation of the Simulation Capability of CAS FGOALS-f3-L for the Second Mode of Interannual Variability of the East Asian Summer Monsoon Based on the Theory of Potential Vorticity Circulation

  • 摘要: 东亚夏季风(EASM)年际变率的精确模拟对于目前气候系统模式来说仍然是一个挑战。在本研究中,基于最近提出的位涡环流(PVC)理论,我们发现观测中EASM 的多变量经验正交函数(MV-EOF)第二模态与跨赤道 PVC(CEPVC)和穿越对流层顶PVC (CUPVC)MV-EOF第一模态之间具有密切联系。 结果表明,FGOALS-f3-L未能再现EASM高度场及降水场的经向偶极子形态,这与CUPVC的模拟偏差密切相关。进一步分析表明,正确模拟与 CUPVC 变化相关的水汽通量的辐合和辐散是模式能够准确模拟EASM第二模态的关键的物理过程。结果还表明,改进与南亚高压相关的对CUPVC模拟的改进可以提高EASM年际变率的模拟技巧。

     

    Abstract: The precise simulation of interannual variability of East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) is still a challenge for the state-of-the-art models. In this study, based on the recent proposed potential vorticity circulation (PVC) theory, we find that the second mode of the multivariate empirical orthogonal function (MV-EOF) for the observed East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) has a close relationship with the first mode of the cross-equatorial PVC (CEPVC) and the cross-tropopause PVC (CUPVC). Based on observational analysis, we further evaluate the simulation capability of the second mode of the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) in July from the FGOALS-f3-L historical experiment and analyze the potential causes of the bias. Results indicate that the model fails to reproduce the meridional dipole pattern of geopotential height and precipitation of EASM which is closely related to the simulation of the CUPVC bias. Further analysis suggests that the correct simulation of the convergence and divergence of the water vapor flux which related to the changes in CUPVC is the key physical process for the model to accurately simulate the second mode of EASM. The results also indicate the improvement in the simulation of the CUPVC related to the South Asian High (SAH) phenomenon could improve the simulation skill of the interannual variability of EASM.

     

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