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欧亚中纬度波列对夏季准双周东亚—太平洋遥相关强度年际变率的调制

Modulation of the Interannual Variability on the Quasi-Biweekly East Asia-Pacific Teleconnection Intensity in Summer by Eurasian Mid-Latitude Wave Trains

  • 摘要: 本文基于1979~2020年ERA5和NOAA再分析数据,分析了夏季准双周东亚—太平洋遥相关(EAP)年际变化特征,并揭示了欧亚中纬度波列在准双周EAP事件强度年际变化中的调制作用。统计结果显示,准双周EAP的年际差异主要体现在事件强度而非事件频率。强、弱年准双周EAP期间西北太平洋低层偶极型环流的强度差异显著,且在强、弱年EAP发展阶段欧亚中纬度波列活动明显不同。欧亚中纬度波列第一模态呈单波列结构,在弱年时有超前准双周EAP遥相关3 d的显著相关;第二模态为双波列结构,在强年时有超前准双周EAP遥相关4 d的显著相关。在强年准双周EAP事件的发展阶段,欧亚高层的双波列结构向西北太平洋频散波通量,与低层环流耦合,在菲律宾和日本以东海域低层形成显著的偶极型环流异常,为准双周EAP波列维持提供动力支持;而在弱年准双周EAP事件的发展阶段,欧亚高层为单波列模态,低层响应微弱且在EAP成熟阶段之前快速衰减,对准双周EAP波列的影响较弱。进一步对比分析表明,相较于单波列结构,中纬度双波列结构更有利于在急流出口处形成位涡南侵和波破碎事件,从而触发西北太平洋对流,促进准双周EAP的发展。由此可见,强年欧亚中纬度双波列模态通过相位叠加和波破碎这两种机制,能有效促进强准双周EAP事件的加强和维持。

     

    Abstract: Based on ERA5 (the fifth major global reanalysis produced by European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) and NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) reanalysis data from 1979 to 2020, this study investigates the interannual variability of the summertime QBW (quasi-biweekly) East Asia–Pacific (EAP) teleconnection and the modulation effect of mid-latitude Eurasian wave trains. The results of the study reveal that the interannual variation in the activity of QBW EAP events primarily stems from differences in intensity rather than frequency. QBW EAP events in strong and weak years exhibit different magnitudes of the WNP (western North Pacific) dipole anomaly and display distinct upstream patterns over the Eurasian mid-latitudes. The leading modes of the upper-level meridional winds over the Eurasian mid-latitudes were extracted using EOF (empirical orthogonal function) analysis. The first mode, characterized by a single-wave train structure, is significantly correlated (leading by 3 d) with QBW EAP development in weak years. The second mode, exhibiting a dual-wave train structure, shows a significant lead correlation (leading by 4 d) with QBW EAP development in strong years. During the development and mature phases of QBW EAP events in strong years, the upstream dual-wave train in the upper troposphere disperses energy to the WNP, which in turn promotes enhanced coupling with the lower-level circulation, fueling QBW EAP events. Conversely, in weak years, the upper-level single-wave train demonstrates minimal influence on the lower levels and decays before the maturation of QBW EAP events, thus playing a minor role. Moreover, compared with the single-wave train, the dual-wave train is more favorable for triggering potential vorticity intrusion and wave-breaking events near the jet exit region, which in turn enhances WNP convection and promotes QBW EAP development. Thus, it can be inferred that the dual-wave train in strong years results in stronger QBW EAP events through phase superposition and wave-breaking processes compared with the wave train in weak years.

     

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