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基于大涡模拟和机器学习的复杂海湾地面风速百米级降尺度技术

Large-Eddy Simulation and Machine Learning-Based 100-Meter Scale Downscaling Technology for Surface Wind Speeds in Complex Bays

  • 摘要: 数值天气预报降尺度技术是获取百米级地面风场预报的重要手段。在复杂海湾地形,尽管动力降尺度能较好地表征百米级地面风场,但其对计算资源要求很高且尚未达到业务时效性要求。而统计降尺度的优点是计算效率高,但在实际应用中缺乏统计建模所需的百米级实况场。因此,单一的降尺度方法难以满足复杂海湾地面风场的精细化预报需求。本研究选取福建湄洲湾冬季冷空气大风的8次过程为研究对象,基于水平分辨率为0.03°的CMA-GD模式模拟结果进行降尺度,结合动力降尺度和统计降尺度两种方法的优点,探讨复杂海湾百米级地面风场的降尺度技术。首先,利用WRF模式嵌套水平分辨率达111m的大涡模拟(LES)进行动力降尺度,建立2019~2023年冬季冷空气大风过程的百米级WRF-LES地面风场模拟数据集。其次,基于2019~2022年CMA-GD气象要素模拟数据集和WRF-LES地面风场模拟数据集,采用随机森林算法构建两者之间的分区统计降尺度模型。利用湄洲湾区域气象自动站地面风观测进行对比评估,结果表明,与CMA-GD模拟相比,百米级WRF-LES数据集更能捕捉到近地面风速脉动的时空跳跃性和刻画湍流的脉动特征,与观测风速的均方根误差(RMSE)也更低,而2023年CMA-GD地面风模拟结果经分区随机森林统计模型降尺度至百米级后,空间分布特征与WRF-LES模拟吻合,风速随时间变化趋势也基本一致,且RMSE明显小于CMA-GD地面风模拟的双线性插值降尺度结果,大部分地区的RMSE控制在0~2.5m/s范围内。综上所述,联合大涡模拟和机器学习的动力-统计降尺度模型能够有效地将复杂海湾地形的公里级地面风速降尺度至百米级,为复杂海湾地形精细化天气预报提供技术支持。

     

    Abstract: Downscaling of Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) is a critical method to obtain surface wind speed forecasts at 100-meter-scale resolution. There are two main types of downscaling: dynamical, which can capture fine scale dynamics of surface wind speeds, and statistical, which compute efficiently with much lower computational cost. But in a bay with complex terrain, neither of them can satisfy the requirements for operational implementation, because of the expensive and inefficient computation of dynamical downscaling, and a lack of 100-meter-scale-resolution data on which to base statistical downscaling. A 100-meter-scale hybrid dynamical-statistical downscaling technology, which combines the benefits of dynamical and statistical downscaling, is proposed in this study to address the issue. First, a dynamical downscaling dataset of surface wind speed simulations with a horizontal resolution of 100-meter scale is obtained from a Large-Eddy Simulation (LES) at the same horizontal resolution nesting with a coarse resolution WRF model (known as WRF-LES). Subsequently, by using a machine learning method, a statistical downscaling model is developed relating an operational NWP input and the dynamically downscaled output. In this paper, the hybrid dynamical-statistical downscaling method is applied to the surface wind speed simulations of the CMA-GD model with a horizontal resolution of 0.03° in some strong wind cases during winters from 2019 to 2023 over the Meizhou Bay of Fujian Province. In the application, the domain of LES with 111-meter resolution is divided by 0.03°, and a Random Forest algorithm (RF) is used to build the statistical downscaling model for every subarea, based on the training data from 2019 to 2022. Evaluations with respect to the surface wind speed observations from the Automated Weather Stations (AWS) over the Meizhou Bay show that the WRF-LES dynamically downscaled data with 111-metre resolution can capture the spatiotemporal intermittency in surface wind speed pulsation better and have less root-mean-square errors (RMSEs) than the CMA-GD simulations. It also shows that as for the dynamical-statistical downscaled surface wind speeds of the CMA-GD simulations over testing set of 2023, the spatial distribution is consistent with the WRF-LES data, and the temporal variation is consistent with the AWS observations as well. In addition, their RMSEs are significantly less than that of bilinear interpolation downscaling from the CMA-GD simulations, with RMSEs in most areas smaller than 2.5 m/s. In conclusion, the proposed dynamical-statistical framework integrating LES and machine learning can effectively downscale kilometer-scale wind speeds to 100-meter scale resolution in complex bays, which may improve the refined weather forecasts in intricate coastal areas.

     

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