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中国南方冬季两类复合极端低温事件的基本特征及成因分析

Analysis of the basic characteristics and causes of two types of composite extreme low temperature events in southern China during the winter season

  • 摘要: 复合极端低温事件对我国南方地区经济社会和人民生活产生重大影响。本文利用1982~2022年中国CN05.1逐日最低气温、相对湿度数据资料和ERA5再分析资料,探讨我国南方冬季两类复合极端低温事件分时空分布特征及可能成因。结果表明,我国冬季冷干事件在南方大部均有分布,并且高频次中心在东部和江淮地区,而我国冬季冷湿事件呈南多北少的分布特征,主要发生在西南和华南以西地区。此外近41年来我国南方大部分地区冷干事件呈增加趋势,冷湿事件则明显减少,两类事件年际变率明显。且冷干事件多发生于前冬季,而冷湿事件则多发生于后冬季。进一步分析两类事件成因差异,揭示了两类事件发生的前冬和后冬对应着不同的环流系统和水汽条件。亚洲中高纬度斜脊和东亚大槽是冷干事件的关键环流特征,为冷空气南侵提供有利环流条件,同期我国南方地区水汽显著辐散,有利于冷干事件发生。冷湿事件发生时期北支波列使得东半球中高纬地区维持两槽一脊的环流形势,南支波列通过西亚和中东地区传播导致南支槽加深并和西太平洋上空异常反气旋共同为我国南方地区输送暖湿气流,对应南方地区水汽辐合,为冷湿事件提供充足水汽。

     

    Abstract: Composite extreme low temperature events have a significant impact on the economy, society, and people"s lives in southern China. This study utilizes daily minimum temperature, relative humidity data from China’s CN05.1 dataset (1982~2022), along with ERA5 reanalysis data, to explore the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics and potential causes of two types of composite extreme low temperature events in southern China during the winter season. The results show that Cold-Dry events are distributed across most of southern China, with high-frequency centers in the eastern and Jianghuai regions, while Cold-Wet events exhibit a south-to-north decreasing trend, mainly occurring in the southwestern and western South China regions. Furthermore, over the past 41 years, Cold-Dry events have shown an increasing trend in most southern regions of China, whereas Cold-Wet events have significantly decreased, with notable interannual variability in both event types. Cold-dry events typically occur in early winter, while Cold-Wet events are more likely to happen in late winter. Further analysis of the different causes of these two types of events reveals that the early and late winter periods are associated with distinct atmospheric circulation systems and moisture conditions. The mid-to-high-latitude ridge over Asia and the East Asian trough are key circulation features for Cold-Dry events, providing favorable conditions for the southward intrusion of cold air. During this period, there is significant moisture divergence in southern China, which promotes the occurrence of Cold-Dry events. On the other hand, during the occurrence of Cold-Wet events, the northern branch of the wave pattern maintains a two-trough, one-ridge circulation over the middle and high latitudes of the Eastern Hemisphere. The southern branch of the wave pattern, propagating through West Asia and the Middle East, deepens the southern trough and interacts with the anomalous anticyclone over the western Pacific, transporting warm and moist air to southern China, leading to moisture convergence in the region and providing abundant moisture for Cold-Wet events.

     

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