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中国清洁空气计划中2013至2019年冬季气溶胶辐射气候效应变化

Variations of winter aerosol radiative and climate effects by the Clean Air Plan of China

  • 摘要: 本文利用区域大气化学/气溶胶-气候耦合模式研究了中国东部2013和2019年冬季气溶胶浓度、气溶胶直接和间接辐射效应以及对气象要素的影响。研究显示在清洁空气计划期间,从2013至2019年中国东部平均近地面PM2.5浓度减小约29%,地面气溶胶直接辐射效应(DRE)减小约24%,主要是人为源减排导致,而间接辐射效应(IRE)增加12%,与南方云量增加有关,因此气溶胶总辐射效应(TRE)减小约10%。相较于2013年冬季,2019年中国北方大部分地区气温增加,最大增温在京津地区,冬季平均超过1.0°C,这主要是由于清洁空气计划导致气溶胶辐射效应和冷却作用减弱,而在南方部分地区气温下降,最大超过0.7°C,降水减少,这是由于该地区IRE(TRE)比2013年更强。本文揭示了中国清洁空气计划在改善空气质量的同时对气候的可能影响,强调制定健康-气候双赢政策的必要性。

     

    Abstract: By using an online coupled regional atmospheric chemistry/aerosol-climate model, this paper investigated aerosol distribution, aerosol direct and indirect radiative effects and their impacts on meteorology. Model results revealed that during the Clean Air Plan from 2013 to 2019, regional mean near-surface PM2.5 concentration decreased by 29%, aerosol direct radiative effect (DRE) decreased by 24%, which was mainly attributed to reduction in anthropogenic emissions, while aerosol indirect radiative effect (IRE) increased by 12%, which was associated with an increase in cloud amount in southern China, resulting in a decrease in aerosol total radiative effect (TRE) by 10% over east China. Compared with winter 2013, surface air temperature in 2019 increased in most areas of northern China, with the maximum increase exceeding 1.0°C in Beijing and Tianjin,which was mainly attributed to the weakening of aerosol cooling effect due to the Clean Air Plan, while in parts of southern China, air temperature in 2019 decreased by more than 0.7°C with precipitation decrease as well, which was due to stronger IRE(TRE) than those in 2013. This study reveals potential climatic effects by the Clean Air Plan, which has significantly improved air quality, and highlights the necessity to design a win-win health-climate policy to deal with environment and climate change.

     

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